Wednesday, January 24, 2024

Is Ukraine Really Losing?

 A lot of doctrinaire libetarians have taken Putin's side on this, for several rasons:

1. Biden is on the LGBTQ side; Putin makes a point of being in opposition.

2. Traditional libertarian opposition to foreign intervention, even by proxy against thugs.

3. Why is our border not being protected frtom invasion?

That last one I understand.  Still, we can do two things at once: Biden could do his job of enforcing our laws and helping Ukraine.  The same crowd keeps insisting that Russia is winning and that we will soon go to World War III with Russia, presumably after peace-loving Russia invades an Article V nation.

But how badly is Ukraine doing?  This 1/23/23 Newsweek article matches many other sources.

On January 18, Ukraine launched a drone attack on a St. Petersburg oil terminal, about 620 miles from the Ukrainian border. It marked the first time a drone had targeted Russian President Vladimir Putin's home region, Leningrad, since the full-scale war in Ukraine began in February 2022.

Another Ukrainian drone attack near the city of St. Petersburg overnight on Sunday struck a major gas export terminal—a Novatek PJSC gas-condensate plant in the port Ust-Luga—causing a huge fire, and halting fuel supplies. Ust-Luga is Russia's largest Baltic port, and Ukraine's Security Service claimed responsibility for that attack, the Kyiv Post newspaper reported.

Should Ukraine successfully strike Russia's two major oil terminals in the Baltic Sea, Ust-Luga and Primorsk, it could halt the export of 1.5 million barrels of oil per day. This could cause the country to lose billions, Bloomberg reported on Monday. Newsweek contacted Russia's Foreign Ministry for comment by email on Tuesday.

The amount of oil shipped by the two oil terminals daily accounted for more than 40 percent of Moscow's total seaborne crude exports on average from January to November 2023, Bloomberg reported, citing industry data.

Any more Russian success and they will be out of business. 


  1. Russia (like the old Soviet Union) wants half of a neighboring or nearby nation. Half of Ukraine -- the other to NATO. Half of Poland, with the other to Nazi Germany. Half of conquered Germany, with the other to UK, France, and the US. Half of Korea. Half of Vietnam. Somewhat more than half of Cuba, with Gitmo to the US. Somewhat less than half of Japan, just the Kurile Islands... I expect Trump, as a deal maker, might attempt to settle the dispute with just such a division. That might not be the worst of outcomes, but it leaves a bad taste. I sometimes wonder if the 1939 Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact dividing Poland might have been echoed with a deal between Hitler and King Edward VII to divvy up France. The English Monarchy by such a deal recovers the same Normandy Territories once claimed by Henry the VI, while Hitler's Fascists recover the Alsace–Lorraine . A strip down the middle might be left over for and to the Paris "liberal, egalitarian" elite... Those theorists of our own day who are unhappy with the original "two state" division of Palestine into Jordan and Israel and propose an additional "two states" dividing Israel into Gaza and the West Bank (with nearly zero "state" left over to a Jewish liberal leadership) might actually like such slices.

  2. During the American Civil War, there were European liberals who supported the Confederacy, because they were rebels fighting for independence. Just like Poland, Hungary, Greece, etc. The little matter of slavery escaped their attention.