Insomnia

From Berlin Diary, January 9. 1940 quoting an officer of the American Embassy in Moscow concerning the invasion of Finland:

"Harry says everyone in Moscow, from Stslin down, thought the Red Arny would be in Helsinki a week after the attack started "

Putin's fantasy of s high-speed special military operation is not the first Russian delusion. 

A New Victim Group

 11//18/25 BBC News:

Two Ukrainian citizens who long worked for Russian intelligence have been identified as the suspects behind two acts of sabotage on Poland's rail network, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said.

One suspect had already been convicted in absentia of acts of sabotage in Ukraine, Tusk told parliament.

On Monday, he visited the scene of an explosion near Mika, south-east of Warsaw, which damaged the railway line leading to the Ukrainian border at the weekend, and called it an "unprecedented act of sabotage".

Another incident down the line near Pulawy on Monday forced a packed train to stop suddenly and damage was found to overhead cables.

The Kremlin brushed off suggestions of Russian involvement.

Russian President Vladimir Putin's spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, said: "It would have been really strange, if Russia hadn't been blamed first."

"Russia is accused of all acts of hybrid and direct war... in Poland," he told Russia's state-run media, adding: "Russophobia is certainly rampant there." [emphasis added]

Of course, it would be a sign of mental disturbance to think Russia might want to block arms shipments to Ukraine.

Crazy Things Russia is Doing in Ukraine

 I am watching this video about Ukrainian use of drones to block roads from use by Russian armor.

I do smell a strongly pro-Ukrainian bias but there is one component that really does suggest Russian desperation: using civilian vehicles to avoid loss of tanks.  Cars, vans, motorcycles, and golf carts.  

The motorcycles are quick and might evade a drone.  Golf carts and passenger vehicles are not so likely to evade a dropped grenade.  

I have read that Russia is refurbished museum tanks for service and many mothballed in the 1950s.  This change to unarmored vehicles makes loads of sense.   

For all the pro-Russian propaganda I was seeing from libertarians and "paleoconservatives" a few months back you might have expected Putin leading a victory parade in Kyiv by now.  I suspect by the time this war concludes, Russia will have so few operable tanks that repelling an invasion of NATO will be close to a field exercise.

UPDATE: Broken link.  Fixed.

Putin Is Trying Start a War to Cover His Idiocy

9/20/25 BBC:

Estonia has requested a consultation with other Nato members after Russian warplanes violated its airspace on Friday morning.

Three Russian MiG-31 fighter jets entered the Estonian skies "without permission and remained there for a total of 12 minutes" over the Gulf of Finland, the government said.

Italy, Finland and Sweden scrambled jets under Nato's mission to bolster its eastern flank. A Nato spokesperson said it was "yet another example of reckless Russian behaviour and Nato's ability to respond.

At some point soon, NATO will shoot down Russian fighters and Putin will insist NATO is the aggressor.  I think Putin's military and oligarchs will remove from power before gets far enough along to see Polish flags flying from the Kremlin.   Russia could not even defeat a weak but courageous nation like Ukraine.  Against NATO?  

I Guess Sanctions Are Hurting Russia After All

I often hear alt-right/paleo-conservatives (two groups thst makes no sense to me) claim that Russia is winning the war and our sanctions really are not hurting Russia.

8/6/25 Politico.Eu:

"On Tuesday, Ethiopian CEO Mesfin Tasew told local press he had “no intention” of leasing planes to Russian carriers for two main reasons: “We currently need more aircraft ourselves, so it is not the right time to lease out planes,” and “We comply with the laws of every country where we operate. Given our strong ties with the United States, we also respect American laws.”"

Sharing the Ukraine Load

8/5/25 Reuters:

"STOCKHOLM, Aug 5 (Reuters) - Sweden, Norway and Denmark will contribute around $500 million to a NATO-led initiative to supply Ukraine with U.S. weapons, including Patriot missiles, to ensure it can continue to defend itself against Russia, the three countries said on Tuesday.

"U.S. President Donald Trump said last month the United States would supply weapons to Ukraine, paid for by European allies, but did not indicate how this would be done."

I am glad to see NATO members do more of the heavy lifting.  It is important but we have carried too much of the cost.

I Am Assuming (Hoping) This is Just Tit-for-Tat, Not a Genuine Fear

8/3/25 CNN:

US President Donald Trump said Friday he was ordering two US Navy nuclear submarines to “appropriate regions,” in response to remarks by Dmitry Medvedev, Russia’s former president and current deputy chairman of its Security Council.

In what he called an effort to be “prepared,” Trump said in a Truth Social post that he had “ordered two Nuclear Submarines to be positioned in the appropriate regions, just in case these foolish and inflammatory statements are more than just that.”

The president did not specify what type of submarines were being moved or where to, and the Pentagon usually reveals little about any of its subs’ movements.

I really doubt Russia would telegraph a warning of imminent nuclear attack without some quid pro quo of bargaining.  But Putin needs to worry that the oligarchs or the military will ask, "Why did we spend a million men, much of our conventional military, many of our strategic bombers, and drive two neutral neighbors into NATO.  What did we get for this?"

I hope you have an emergency food and water supply just in case.

In Case You Have Been Asleep for Several Years

The Ukraine War has demonstrated that the future of warfare is drone-based.  You have all seen aerial drones dropping grenades into trenches and tanks stupid enough to leave hatches open. The maritime drones have also demonstrated their ability to sink Russian ships.  This video shows ground drones often salvaged from car parts but with very little visibility.  Some are carrying mines.  Some have machine guns.  Some 20mm cannon.  All have been very effective. 

Why this matters.  Ukraine like Russia is facing a demographic crisis.  WW2 and its echoes means they must avoid getting too many soldiers killed in combat.   Drones save lives.  

These drones are pretty cheap.  I hope the U.S. Navy, which is beginning to build maritime drones, is paying attention to this cost issue.  If you can build maritime drones that cost a few thousand dollars, you can swarm Chinese ships in such numbers that they cannot get all of them.  I also want our captains to have a nearly unlimited supply of these available to launch.  Make them cheap enough and manufacturing scales nicely.

Video of Drone Attack

Amazing video.  I hope the U.S. has all of its planes in hangars.   A surprise attack from nearby locations could be devastating.  They got some planes in the air when the attack started but the cost to Russia is huge.  Some Russian generals may not be going home. 

Ukraine is Not Out By Any Means

6/1/25 NPR:

"The operation saw drones transported in containers carried by trucks deep into Russian territory, he said. The drones hit airfields including the Belaya air base in Russia's Irkutsk region, more than 4,000 kilometers (2,500 miles) from Ukraine. It is the first time that a Ukrainian drone has been seen in the region, local Gov. Igor Kobzeva said, stressing that it did not present a threat to civilians."

This should be a sobering reminder that Russia is far weaker than its apologists will admit.  It is also an encouraging reminder that in a war with NATO, Russia might lose much of its strategic capacity before it could be used.  By some accounts,  one of the attacks was at their nuclear submarine base.  I suspect this was a joint naval/air force base.  Ukraine is safe from submarine attack.

This may also be a hint to Russia that they better make peace soon, before Ukraine does something serious.

Predictable results: "Russia-Ukraine Talks Yield Prisoner Swap Agreement."

UPDATE: A reader noted a couple things that I saw and failed to consider.  The drones are brightly illuminated (this does seem to be infared) and they are falling more like rockets than quadcopters.  Does NATO have anything that fits that model?

New videos are slow enough and horizontal enough that they must be quadcopters not rockets.

I Guess Orange Man Bad is Improving in European Eyes

5/10/25 Politico:

KYIV — European leaders on Saturday upped the pressure on Russian President Vladimir Putin to accept a 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine without any conditions attached, warning that Western allies would impose further sanctions on Moscow and ramp up military support for Kyiv if Moscow does not comply.

Crucially, U.S. President Donald Trump backs the European demands and is also willing to contribute to the implementation and surveillance of a potential ceasefire — at least that's what the European side says....

During the three-hour discussion between the leaders in Zelenskyy's Mariinsky Palace, Macron had taken the initiative to call Trump on his mobile phone and brief him together with the other leaders on the discussions.

Trump picked up the call, even though it was still before 7 a.m. in Washington, and agreed to support the European demands, according to two officials with knowledge of the matter.

Putin had his chance at a deal with Trump in the middle.  He blew it.  Trump is unlikely to hold much back.  

 

"Blessed are the peacemakers, for they will be called the sons of God."

I Was Told Russia Was Winning

4/16/25 Al-Jazeera:

"On April 1, Russia began a new conscription drive with the goal of enlisting 160,000 military-age men between 18 and 30.

"It is the largest such call-up since 2011, aiming to fulfil last year’s presidential decree to boost the armed forces to 2.5 million personnel....

"“A year ago there was an age amendment, and now summons are issued to young people from 18-30 years old,” Ivan Chuviliaev, spokesman for the organisation Go By The Forest, which helps people escape the ranks, told Al Jazeera.

"Previously, the maximum age for conscription was 27."

100,000 dead contributes to that need.

Russia is already in a deep demographic bubble and Putin just keeps digging.  Putin wants to be remembered.   He may be remembered as the guy who made ethnic Russians a tiny minority of whatever replaces the PRC as it expands north and west.

The maximum conscription age is usually a sign of desperation.  I believe the U.S. was conscrpting 45-year-olds at end of WW2.

 

UPDATE: A reader noticed this was only a 20% increase in total conscripts.  Older but not necessarily a huge increase in total soldiers.

"Blessed are the Peacemakers..."

3/12/25 New York Times:

"Europeans reacted with relief to the announcement on Tuesday that Ukraine had agreed with the United States on a 30-day cease-fire in its war with Russia and anxiously awaited Moscow’s response.

"They were relieved because Washington announced simultaneously that it would immediately restore military and intelligence support for Ukraine. And there was expectation that Russia must now respond in kind, or presumably President Trump would put some kind of pressure on Moscow analogous at least to the blunt instruments he used against Ukraine."

And if Putin does not want peace, he will find out that Trump is not an enemy you want.

Peace Proposal

Austin Bay explains how the peace proposal to which U.S. and Ukraine have agreed puts Putin in a very bad position if he continues fighting and even if he does:

"A joint American-Ukrainian statement said the U.S. will "immediately" resume full intelligence sharing and military-security aid to Ukraine. The Trump administration also said Ukraine had agreed to the strategic minerals deal President Donald Trump offered as payment for U.S. financial and material support.

"Trump makes the case that the deal serves as an informal security guarantee for Ukraine — meaning the minerals-for-support deal tells Moscow the U.S. has a strategic interest in peace, in Ukraine's political existence, in Ukraine's economic viability and in its independence from Moscow's destructive absorption and totalitarian corruption.

"The deep logic behind Trump's deal is based on historical common sense that even a megalomaniac like Russian dictator Vladimir Putin should grasp: Peace empowers genuine economic viability and sustainability."

The spat in the Oval Office may have even been setup, I suspect,  to put Putin off-guard.

Preparing for Peace Negotiations

3/11/25 CNN:

"Russia said it was hit by a “massive” Ukrainian drone attack overnight Tuesday, just hours before critical talks between officials from Washington and Kyiv began.

"Moscow’s defense ministry said it had downed 343 drones it claimed Ukraine had fired at Russia, of which 91 had targeted the Moscow region. It also said six Ukrainian strike drones were intercepted near Russia’s Kursk nuclear power plant."

This makes perfect sense in a Trumpian negotiating view (and might be orchestrated by Trump for that reason).  Demonstrate that Ukraine still has the power to carry the war to the Russian capital.  This should remind Putin that they still have something to lose by delaying a cease-fire.

Even if a cease-fire turns out to be only a temporary halt in fighting,  it gives Ukraine time to rebuild infrastructure and get more munitions from Europe. 

Zelenskyy Got His Nose Thwacked Properly

He wants to kiss and make up.

Trump can be mean but he makes things happen.  It may be an ugly peace but even an ugly peace is better than continuing war.

Cyberwarfare

The first reporting made little sense.  This makes a bit more.  3/3/25 New York Times:

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has ordered U.S. Cyber Command to halt offensive operations against Russia, according to a current official and two former officials briefed on the secret instructions. The move is apparently part of a broader effort to draw President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia into talks on Ukraine and a new relationship with the United States.

Mr. Hegseth’s instructions, part of a larger re-evaluation of all operations against Russia, have not been publicly explained. But they were issued before President Trump’s public blowup in the Oval Office with President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine on Friday.

The precise scope and duration of the Defense Department order is not clear, as the line between offensive and defensive cyberoperations is often a blurry one.

If they stop their offensive operations as part of peace negotiations, this is good.

It Is Obviously Trump's Fault

12/26/24 Euronews:

"Azerbaijani government sources have exclusively confirmed to Euronews on Thursday that a Russian surface-to-air missile caused the Azerbaijan Airlines plane crash in Aktau on Wednesday.

"According to the sources, the missile was fired at Flight 8432 during drone air activity above Grozny, and the shrapnel hit the passengers and cabin crew as it exploded next to the aircraft mid-flight.

"Government sources have told Euronews that the damaged aircraft was not allowed to land at any Russian airports despite the pilots’ requests for an emergency landing, and it was ordered to fly across the Caspian Sea towards Aktau in Kazakhstan.

"According to data, the plane’s GPS navigation systems were jammed throughout the flight path above the sea."

The Russians are going to blame Ukraine because Russia was fighting off Ukrainian drones at the time.  You may recall Russian separatists in Ukraine shot down another commercial airliner some years back over Ukraine.  

There are so many apologists for the Russian invasion of Ukraine in the isolationist libertarian movement.   I am sure this will be one more reason to defend Putin.

I Respect His Commitment, But There Are Consequnces to Fighting in a Foreign Military

Not just his prison sentence but I believe this violates U.S. law. 10/7/24 PBS:

MOSCOW (AP) — A Russian court on Monday sentenced a 72-year-old American in a closed trial to nearly seven years in prison for allegedly fighting as a mercenary in Ukraine. Prosecutors said Stephen Hubbard signed a contract with the Ukrainian military after Russia sent troops into Ukraine in February 2022 and he fought alongside them until being captured two months later.

Drone Surrender

No, the drones are nor waving white flags. 8/14/24 Forbes:

"Drones are creating a new type of warfare in Ukraine. The latest unexpected twist is ‘non-contact surrender’ in which a drone with a speaker and microphone approaches Russian troops and invites them to lay down their arms. They follow the drone back to Ukrainian lines where they are taken safely into captivity. There have been occasional spontaneous surrenders to drones in the past, but this looks like an organized campaign to take surrender remotely."

Advantages.  No worry that Russian soldiers pretending to surrender will open fire on Ukrainian soldiers.   Safer for both groups.  It is nice to see technology make war more humane