Clayton Cramer.
Conservative. Tennessee (now). Ex-Idaho. Software engineer. Historian. Trying to prevent Idiocracy from becoming a documentary.
Email complaints/requests about copyright infringement to clayton @ claytoncramer.com. Reminder: the last copyright troll that bothered me went bankrupt.
Monday, October 19, 2026
This Seems Like a Dirty Trick
The Independent Candidate Surge: Do Not Be Fooled
I recalled just as we left Idaho, supposedly independent candidates with positions intermediate between Democrat and Republican appearing. When we arrived, one of the candidates for governor was a convicted felon. From the 9/15/26 Tennessee Lookout:
Hatley running as conservative outsider
Hatley has never run for political office in Tennessee and has spent most of his adult life as a businessman.
After a felony bank fraud conviction, Hatley said he turned his life around. He became the successful owner of Whisper Outdoor, which started by manufacturing hot tubs and has since expanded to producing golf carts, boats and off-road vehicles.
While running as an independent, Hatley described himself as “a very conservative guy.”
“I’ve always been pro-life and pro-guns,” Hatley said. “I want to be independent because I don’t want to have party pressure.”
A tenet of Hatley’s argument to voters is that he is pushing for the state to have an elected auditor to “figure out where the money is going,” because he doesn’t feel like the state is managing its budget correctly.
He is also touting his willingness to spend at least $7 million of his own money and doesn’t plan to do any fundraising.
“I don’t want anyone in my ear,” Hatley said. “It’s very important that I go in on day one with a clean slate, only thinking about things that make sense for Tennessee.”
Hatley was 21. We all do stupid things when young. Maybe not that stupid.
I do believe that once a felon has completed their sentence, continuing their disability from full citizenship is not a great idea. If you are that dangerous, perhaps you should still be inside. I do not think this particularly recommends you for public office, however.
Grok confirmed my intuition:
Yes, more pure independents (candidates not nominated by a political party) are running for Congress in the 2026 midterms than in typical recent cycles.
A July 2026 Newsweek analysis of candidate lists found 217 independent entries across U.S. House and Senate races (170 House, 47 Senate), covering 153 distinct contests. Later reporting (NPR and others) put the House figure around 170–173.
A more precise Ballot Access News tally (September 2026 print edition) counted 141 independent candidates for U.S. House seats. That is roughly double the recent norms and matches or exceeds the recent high-water mark:
- 2024: 57 independents for House (lowest since 2004)
- 2022: 78
- 2018: 84
- 2016: 72
- 2014: 82
- 2012: 104
- 2010: 140
- 2006–2008: ~63–65
Political scientist Bernard Tamas noted that a clear increase would reverse a decline in independent/third-party House candidacies lasting more than 25 years (the broader third-party + independent peak was 559 in 2000). Multiple outlets (The Nation, Independent Voter News, NPR) described 2026 as one of the largest surges of independent candidates in recent memory, coinciding with a record ~45% of Americans identifying as independents in Gallup data.
Notable high-profile pure independents include Senate candidates Dan Osborn (Nebraska), Brian Bengs (South Dakota), Todd Achilles (Idaho), and Seth Bodnar (Montana), several of whom benefited from Democrats stepping aside in red states, plus House candidates such as Bill Hill (Alaska).
Caveats: Early lists can include candidates who later dropped, failed ballot access, or ran as write-ins. “Independent” here means unaffiliated (not a nominee of the Democratic, Republican, Libertarian, Green, or other parties). Structural barriers (petition requirements, fundraising, spoiler concerns) remain high, and success rates for independents have historically been very low. Overall congressional candidate volume was also elevated in 2026, partly due to high open-seat numbers.
In short, the data support more independent candidacies than the recent average, especially versus the lower counts of the 2010s–early 2020s.
Why? It would be tempting to see this as a rejection of doctrinaire politics. This would be a good thing.
A cynical view is that these are Democrats in mufti, attempting to split likely Republican voters away to give Democrats seats that would otherwise be out of their reach. I asked Grok about this as well. While independent candidates are not concentrated Republican districts:
Where the serious/viable ones stand out
The independent candidates receiving the most attention—and those where Democrats have cleared the field or formally/informally backed them—are concentrated in Republican-leaning states for statewide races:
- Nebraska (Dan Osborn for Senate)
- South Dakota (Brian Bengs for Senate)
- Idaho (Todd Achilles for Senate; also House candidates like Sarah Zabel in a deep-red district)
- Montana (Seth Bodnar for Senate)
- Alaska (Bill Hill for House)
This reflects a pattern in which Democrats, facing weak brands in solidly red states, have stepped aside in hopes an independent can be more competitive against a Republican incumbent. Similar dynamics appear in some deep-red House districts (e.g., examples cited in Florida and Idaho).
At the same time, independents are also running in blue-leaning or competitive areas (New York, Illinois, California, Washington, Virginia, swing districts like Iowa’s 1st). One sitting House member, Kevin Kiley (California), switched from Republican to independent and is running as such in a redrawn district that leans Democratic.
This actually makes sense. Democrats know that socialism and child mutilation are so now heavily identified with their party that backing candidates without that "Democrat" label is likely to defeat Republicans. These IINOs (Independents In Name Only) could redeclare themselves after the election or simply caucus with the Democrats like Socialist Bernie Sanders does.
Saturday, October 17, 2026
Wealth
The Federal Reserve’s latest Survey of Consumer Finances revealed a striking split: Median net worth rose roughly 38% for households headed by someone 75 or older between 2022 and 2025, while falling 23% for those headed by someone under 35. Both figures account for inflation, according to an analysis by Nick Maggiulli, chief data officer at Ritholtz Wealth Management and author of The Wealth Ladder.
The Wall Street Journal first reported the age split in a short post on what it called “the gold standard for measuring household wealth,” which the central bank releases every three years. Americans 55 and over now hold roughly $140 trillion, about three-quarters of the nation’s net worth, Fortune reported this month, citing a Bank of America Institute analysis of the Fed data.
The oldest households finished the period with a median net worth of $504,600, up from $366,288 in 2022, measured in 2025 dollars. For the youngest households, it fell from $42,725 to $32,820. The oldest group now has roughly 15x the wealth of the youngest, compared with about 9x three years earlier.
Across all families, inflation-adjusted median net worth rose just 2% between 2022 and 2025, reaching $215,900. That modest national gain concealed sharply different experiences at opposite ends of the age spectrum.
The findings also echo an argument Yale law and history professor Samuel Moyn made in an interview with Fortune this summer about his book, Gerontocracy in America: The concentration of wealth among older Americans is not merely a matter of who has had longer to save. In his account, it also shapes whose interests the economy and political system serve.
Moyn describes an “oldigarchy,” in which older, disproportionately wealthy Americans hold outsize influence. His book argues that “aging Americans control the biggest bank accounts and stock portfolios,” and that “the old rich have pulled away from everyone else.”
Yes. We had the good sense to not take out enormous student loans for degrees that did not lead to jobs of any value. Some of this was not really good sense. Almost any degree except maybe art or sociology would likely get you an adequate job in 1970. Education was also so absurdly expensive that you needed the 1970s equivalent of a $100,000 student loan to start out adult life.
We had some other advantages. Lots of good jobs did not require a college degree back then. Creeping credentialism and the contempt for technical jobs had not closed other avenues from serious consideration.
The harsh reality, however, is that generally getting older makes you richer. We bought a Sears refrigerator in 1976. It was still working into the 2000s. Some of the dishes that we received as wedding presents in 1980 are still in use, although not many.
Still, time heals most financial mistakes if you stay invested and do not waste on trying to look like The Illustrated Man.
I suspect as us Boomers go bust and our assets enrich our kids, this will even out a bit. Unless the young whiners decide we need to go full Communist.
If You See Something, Say Something
A jammed gun and workers at an Arlington Heights Taco Bell restaurant prevented a potentially devastating mass shooting Sunday at a Hindu temple in Aurora.
Those were among the details to emerge Thursday as authorities released additional information about the arrest of a 19-year-old Palatine man accused of plotting a terrorist attack on the Sri Venkateswara Swami Balaji Temple.
Cook County prosecutors said Alexandros Paporakis told a Taco Bell co-worker he had gone to the temple Sunday and attempted to shoot someone from his car, but his rifle jammed.
He indicated he intended to return later Sunday to try again, but a co-worker called 911 and stopped the potential massacre, authorities said.
The story gets more interesting. A "Heritage American"? Apparently not. 10/16/26 Chicago Tribune:
Paporakis, an enrolled student at Harper College, was allegedly living with his mother at the time of the planned attack and had been for about a year, Palatine police Chief William Nord said Wednesday. But a guardianship petition filed in Cook County last month alleges that his mother was unable to provide a stable home and that his father had abused and abandoned him. Those circumstances, the petition states, left the teenager unable to return to his home country.
The Tribune could not independently verify which country the petition referred to as Paporakis’ home country. The teenager’s own writings, according to court documents, suggest a hatred rooted less in national origin than in race and religion.
“The shooter hated Indians, but his hate did not discriminate,” U.S. Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi said at a news conference Friday, as he appeared to hold back tears. “According to court documents, the manifesto that he wrote described Indians, Jews, Black people and other minorities as ‘subhuman’”.
That seems like a Greek name to me. Perhaps, the entire spectrum of antisocial media found a new host to infect. In the 1990s, I recall a mass murder at a college in Western Massachusetts carried out by a neo-Nazi Korean.
A Conscious Decision to Make an Oregon School a Mass Murderer Safe Space
As usual Dr. Lott is on top of this. His discussion of this tragedy links to a 5/31/2022 Oregon Public Radio article:
Oregon lawmakers last year gave every public school district in Oregon the option to ban guns from their premises.So why would districts disarm their teachers and staff?
So far, most districts have declined to take them up on the offer.
Since a change to Oregon law in September, just 13% of the state’s public school districts have opted to close an exemption that allows holders of a concealed handgun license, or CHL, to carry weapons onto public property where possessing a gun would otherwise be a felony.
According to an OPB analysis, that list includes some districts in the Portland metro area — though not yet Portland Public Schools — along with far more rural school systems. Among the 25 that have banned guns are districts in Klamath Falls, Myrtle Point, Tillamook, Pendleton, Tigard-Tualatin, Lake Oswego and Woodburn.
The vast majority of the state’s 197 public school districts have, to date, taken no such action...
Backers of policies banning guns in schools acknowledge it’s a small step. Board members in three districts OPB spoke with said they could not point to an incident where a CHL holder or their weapon had caused an issue on school grounds.
“It just allowed us to complete the commitment that we already had in place of having gun-free schools,” said Melissa Barnes Dholakia, chair of the Bend-La Pine school board. The board passed a ban in December, receiving just two comments on the policy, both of them supportive.
For some students, the possibility that lawful guns could cause trouble on campus was a primary driver of their support for a ban.
When the Hillsboro school board enacted the policy in January, a high school student named Ceph Tronco was among those voicing support.
“What I’ve been thinking about as I’ve been hearing about this policy isn’t, ‘Is someone going to be in place to stop an attempted school shooting?’” Tronco said. “It is: ‘Is someone going to have brought a gun into a school grounds that accidentally discharges? Or is somebody going to have the potential to get into a charged argument that escalates because of the presence of a firearm?’”
The bottom line, Tronco said: “We do not want people to be bringing firearms onto our campuses.”
And that worked out so well in Bend. Adults should be making policy not kids, whose knowledge of the world is necessarily incomplete.Friday, October 16, 2026
The Dumbest X Post Ever!
I Have Read Some Horrifying Incidents. Some Are So Horrible That They Cannot Be What They First Appear
Arcadia, Fla. (1967)
Before 11/01/1967: Police charged the parents of seven
children with poisoning them with parathion, an insecticide. The father was 32. The sheriff was preparing
to investigate the previous suspicious death of five other children of the
father. He had taken out life insurance
policies on the children. The father was sentenced to death. Subsequently,
evidence established that a babysitter admitted doing the poisoning and
evidence clearing him was suppressed at trial. He was released in 1989.
Category: family
Suicide: no
Cause: unknown
Weapon: poison[1]
[1]
"Poison In Food, Parents Facing Death Charges," [Fremont, O.] News-Messenger, Nov. 01, 1967,
1; “Delayed justice for an innocent man,” Florida
Times-Union, May 16, 2019, https://www.jacksonville.com/story/opinion/2019/05/15/tuesday-editorial-delayed-justice-for-innocent-man/5145739007.
.
