Tuesday, August 30, 2022

How Dangerous is America?

 I know privileged whites in terror of gunmen in a mall murdering them.  Some European tourists are also in fear because of how gun murders are portrayed as a widespread problem here.  So how much danger are you in from gunfire?  I am using FBI publication Crime in the United States 2019 because this is the last year all the data appears in one easy to analyze publication,  From 2020 onward you use something called Crime Data Explorer with which I have little experience,  Also, 2019 was the last largely pre-COVID year and before the intentionally ginned up murder increase.

At first glance 13,927 murders (Of those 74% were with guns) sounds pretty bad compared to many nations with much smaller populations.  Total murder rate is 5.0/100,000 population.  Still not great but the distribution details are interesting and eye-opening about risk.

Whites (more than 234 million Americans) are victims in 42% of all murders.  That means they have a 2.3/100,000 murder rate.  This is substantially lower than the murder rates of some European nations.  White people are at very low risk of being murder victims.  Conversely, black people are at very high risk, with a murder rate of 16.5/100,000.  This is an ongoing tragedy for black Americans, one that gun banners like to overlook.  If you are looking to blame white supremacists for this, clutch another straw: 40% of the murderers are black.  Again, this is a tragedy for black Americans.  There is a nasty aphorism that if you are Dr. Martin Luther King Blvd. in almost any big city, find a freeway onramp and leave.  Sadly, this is true and doubtless reduces tourist dollars in these communities.

To put this risk in perspective compared to other risks, the white death rate from motor vehicle crashes (not all of which are necessarily accidents) is 12.5/100,000.  If you are worried about dying on vacation in the U.S., worry more about a traffic accident killing you.

There is also a message here for gun owners.  For whites (and especially whites outside of big cities) who carry a gun for self-defense, make sure your seatbelt is fastened, engage in "defensive driving," do not drink even a little and drive, and get off the streets at night, when 30% of DUI deaths happen.

Thanks to Anthony for causing me to check my arithmetic.  My point remains the same.  Murder for white Americans is pretty darn rare.

1 comment:

  1. Clayton, I think your math is off. Using your numbers, I got a murder victimization rate of 2.5 per 100,000, not 0.4.

    2.5 is higher than most European countries except some ex-communist ones. But not by a lot. Consider that the personality of the y typical European who migrated to America was more violent than of those who didn't, and that behavior traits are highly heritable, this isn't surprising.