Thursday, April 14, 2022

If Russia Attacks Finland, They May Not Have a Military

 4/13/22 Yahoo News:

KYIV/LVIV, Ukraine (Reuters) - Russia said the crew of its Black Sea fleet flagship were evacuated on Thursday and measures were being taken to tow the stricken ship back to port, after an explosion of ammunition on board that Ukraine said was caused by a missile strike.

Russia's defence ministry said the fire on the Soviet-era missile cruiser Moskva had been contained, but left the ship badly damaged. It did not acknowledge the ship, which had more than 500 sailors on board, had been attacked and said the cause of the fire was under investigation.

Ukraine's southern military command said that it hit the warship with a Ukrainian-made Neptune anti-ship missile and that it had started to sink.

Reuters was unable to verify either side's statements.

A Pentagon spokesperson said U.S. military did not have enough information.

"It is certainly possible that it got hit by a missile, but it's also completely possible that something internal to the workings of the ship itself," John Kirby told CNN.

A fire broke out in the ammunition.  A missile hit.  Both may well be true.  Any guesses how long and how expensive repairs will take. 

The real hazard here is that if Russia Putin is stupid enough to attack a NATO member, they will probably lose air superiority over the adjacent region in the first day, and most of their tanks to Warthogs shortly thereafter.  At that point, Putin will be so humiliated that risking taking Russia back to the Stone Age might make sense.

As you can see Russia's population is heavily concentrated in a triangle of Omsk, St. Petersburg, and Volgograd.

Destruction of the existing military and industrial centers will likely kill most Russians by blast, fallout, or starvation.  (We might not do much better.)  

Russian destiny may turn out to be some remaining radioactive signs in Cyrillic.


  1. "A fire broke out in the ammunition. A missile hit. Both may well be true."

    The missile that was reportedly used was designed for much smaller ships. That it started fires, rather than sinking the ship, is what you'd expect.

  2. Contrary to the US (and most of Western Civ), Russia has a very extensive fallout shelter system. Supposedly it has enough capacity to handle ~90+% of their population. Been some years since I've seen anything on the subject, but they seemed quite paranoid on the subject, which is what is needed to make them worthwhile.