Sunday, October 18, 2020

All Those Californians

This Boise State publication has an article by one of their political science professors that confirms the anecdotal evidence that I have seen: 

The table below shows the partisanship of the Californians in the survey who have moved to Idaho, compared to native Idahoans. Again, there are not notable differences between the two groups, and there is certainly no evidence that the Californians are more Democratic than native Idahoans. If anything, they appear to be more Republican. Of the Californians in the sample, 60% reported being Republican, compared to 54% of the native Idahoans. Again, the differences between the two groups are small, so we are not able to say with confidence that they are meaningful distinctions.

Finally, turning to ideology, we see a very similar pattern. The Californians who have moved to Idaho are not especially liberal as a group (22% identify as liberal), with a narrow majority identifying as conservative (54%). If anything, Californians coming to Idaho are more conservative than native Idahoans.

While population growth will be a problem (as it already is in the Treasure Valley), raging liberalism is at least as much natives as recent arrivals.  Two friends who are recently arrived here did so because they are gun rights activists


  1. The problem is one of definition. What is "conservative" to the average Californian? I know some California conservatives and I've talked politics with them. They all, to a man, supported Obamacare. They also support gun rights, except for "those guns". By my definition, that's not a conservative. Compared to the usual leftist Californian, it is.

    Don't listen to what they say, watch who they vote for. Then you know who and what they are.

  2. You guys are lucky. I fear that California refugees are turning Arizona here purple.

    But some of us came from California, although I did it when CA was still a decent place to live.

    A couple of years ago, I was doing some work with California search dog handlers, and every single one, without me asking, said they wished they lived in AZ, because of our politics and our gun laws. That is also true of the SAR people I know in Arizona.

    I wonder how many lefty nature lovers realize that if they get lost, they'll be rescued by conservatives, even Trump supporters?

  3. Plus 10 to The Freeholder.

    The premise of placing any confidence whatsoever in political analysis from an entity (government education..."Big Ed") that functions as forward operating bases for communist indoctrination is ludicrous. Academia is, by and large, assimilated and compromised.

    O'Sullivan's Law is more anecdotally verifiable than any data emitting from the organs of the Marxists.

    The "law" states that any organization or enterprise that is not expressly right wing will become left wing over time.

    My modification is more stringent: "Any institution that is not doctrinally and explicitly in accord with the Word of God will become increasing statist and evil over time."

  4. This study is three years old. I wonder if it's been updated.

    Along those lines in the 2018 Texas Senate race Beto O'Rouke won a majority among Texas-born voters, while Cruz won and even greater majority of Texas voters not born in Texas.

  5. Hank: do you have a link for that? It makes perfect sense. Victims of the Democratic Party have direct knowledge; others are trusting the "news" media.

    BFR: If this bias is this strong, I would expect them to find that those Californians will lead Idaho into their glorious future. I also find it believable because I have met ONE ex-Californian left of Idaho's admittedly left-wing center, and dozens who are pro-gun, pro-life, and Christian, and she is a lesbian. The only anti-AW persons saying so that I have heard are Paulette Jordan (native Idahoan), and a native Idaho gun owner who thought these were machine guns.