Russia Might Win But At Enormous Cost

 2/25/22 Daily Mail:

Ukraine says it has inflicted one of Russia's heaviest ever day of losses with more than 1,000 casualties: Putin's losses now stand at 2,800 troops, 80 tanks and 516 armoured vehicles as fightback continues

• Ukrainian forces claimed on Friday to have destroyed part of an airfield in south Russia in missile strike Friday
• Kyiv's forces have shot out seven Russian helicopters, destroyed at least 80 tanks, blitzed up to 10 fighter jets
• Ukraine military far inferior to its Russian counterpart with an air defence system dating back to the Soviet era
• NATO and US have made it clear that no troops will be sent and left Ukraine military to hold off assault alone 

Sending NATO forces in would certainly provoke a larger conventional war.  I could see Putin pulling a Samson and starting nuclear war if he thought he was going to be humilated.  I suspect the Russian military would refuse such an insane order and might even take Putin into custody for "observation," but that is a very high risk.  

2/25/22 First News:

A convoy with ammunition from Poland has arrived in Ukraine, the Polish minister of defense has announced.

Mariusz Błaszczak wrote on Twitter on Friday that "Poland supports and is in solidarity with the Ukrainian people," as he announced that a convoy with ammunition had reached that country.

"Poland firmly opposes the Russian aggression," he added. 

If that seems like not much, consider how fast an AK runs out of ammunition when untrained civilians are using them on full-auto. 

2/26/22 Military Leak:

A convoy with ammunition and man-portable air-defense system from Poland has arrived in Ukraine, the Polish minister of defense Mariusz Blaszczak has announced. In early February, the Polish Minister of Defense has adopted a resolution to provide local-made Piorun GROM-M MANPADS man-portable air defense missile systems to Ukraine following the tensions with Russia.

Even if they are only effective against helicopters, that certainly impairs Russian mobility, and increases the number of "We regret to inform you" letters the Russian Ministry of Defense has to send.  At some point, Putin's popularity will wane.