Monday, July 7, 2014

What A Surprise: Gun Violence Is Heavily Concentrated

People hospitalized with a firearm injury are 30 times more likely to return to the hospital with another firearm injury than people hospitalized for other reasons. And they’re 11 times more likely to die from gun violence within the next five years, according to a study commissioned by the Seattle City Council....

The study highlighted a strong correlation between firearm-related hospitalizations and poor outcomes after being discharged, including repeated hospitalization, commission of crime and death. A quarter of those hospitalized for a firearm-related injury were arrested for firearm-related crime within the next five years.
Researchers found that those hospitalized with a gun-related injury who had a prior arrest for gun-related or violent crime were 43 times more likely to be slain within the next five years than those without either.
This should not be a surprise to anyone.  A relatively tiny part of the population -- typically a fraction of 1%  of the population -- commits most of the serious violent crimes.  Any gun control measure -- indeed, almost any law of any sort -- that assumes that the risk is evenly distributed is fundamentally flawed.

UPDATE: As Of Arms and the Law points out:
Enforcement: even if guns are banned, and 99% of them confiscated, odds are that the remaining 1% will be disproportionately in the hands of career gang-bangers.


  1. I could have told them that without a study. I had repeat customers more than once in my career. Some people are just bullet magnets. That's mostly because they do things in places that make it likely they will be shot at.

    Don't live that sort of life and chances are you won't get shot.

  2. I notice that the newspaper and the study didn't jump to any conclusion about causes.

    I have my opinion on that. And I suspect it is mostly due to the behaviors of the people studied; also due to the behavior of the kind of people that they associate with.

  3. What? I thought the guns went hunting these unfortunate sorts.