Sunday, October 21, 2012

It Is Going To Be Close...

The latest Gallup Poll of likely voters shows Romney with a six point lead on Obama (51-45).  Once you figure in the number of dead voters, voters who "Vote Early, Vote Often," illegal aliens, and the rest of the Democratic Party machine, it is going to be very close.

The latest RealClearPolitics map shows Romney with a slight lead in electoral votes, but a lot of states still toss-ups.  The fact that Oregon is only "leans Obama" is a pretty good sign of how deeply in trouble Obama is.

The real danger is Obama's campaign, just like in 2008, is refusing to turn on standard security measures to prevent non-citizens from making contributions from abroad.  This is not a hypothetical problem; non-citizens have made small contributions to test it out, and had their clearly bogus contributions (based on mismatch of state and zipcode) accepted -- and then been solicited for additional contributions that stay below the $200 detailed reporting requirement level.


  1. I'm not as worried:

    I haven't followed all the twists and turns of Gallup apparently changing their polling due to the Administration's threats, but since it all hinges on who actually votes, and therefore polls are only as accurate as their model of likely voters are, we're in something of a "who knows?" situation. At least as far as this election has so many aberrations (maybe not the right word, but I mean things like a mostly failing black socialist President vs. a New England Mormon RINO).

    And there are limits to how much money can buy in elections, as I'm sure you've observed.

  2. Another data point:

    Rasmussen's Daily Presidential Tracking Poll today just broke for Romney 50% to 46%.

    Other than brief convention bounces, this is the first time either candidate has led by more than three points in months.

    Note this is a rolling 3 day poll, with no post-3rd debate results.

    Some commentators have been noticing that a mild preference cascade like the one we might be seeing tends to demonstrate itself slowly. Me, I'm now assuming Romney's going to win and am more concerned about the Democrats not maintaining control of the Senate, which would be beyond messy.

  3. (I'll continue this for a few days unless you object): Rasmussen today reports another 50-46% split; with those numbers, if their "likely voter" model is correct enough Obama is probably doomed (of course, this depends on EC results, but those aren't looking good either).