Thursday, October 4, 2012

Is Oregon In Play?

Michael Barone at Washington Examiner says that there are reports that Obama is running TV ads on Portland, Oregon stations.  This is bizarre, at first glance.  Oregon should be a completely safe blue state:
It’s a state where public polling shows him Obama ahead of Mitt Romney—by 50%-41% in a September USAToday poll and 50%-42% in a Public Policy Polling poll in June. Obama carried Oregon 57%-40% in 2008, much better than John Kerry’s 51%-47% in 2004.
Every dollar spent advertising in a state where Obama has an easy win is a dollar not being spent in the swing states, like Ohio.  Is it possible that the Obama campaign is actually worried about Oregon?  Barone suggests that one possible reason is that:
someone in the Obama campaign somewhere are concerned that Libertarian party nominee Gary Johnson may cut into Obama’s vote in Oregon, which could make Mitt Romney competitive as George W. Bush was in 2000. After 2000 many left-leaning voters were wary of third party candidates like Nader, for fear that votes for them would elect a Republican. But Johnson differs from Nader in one important way: the former governor of New Mexico favors liberalizing the laws against marijuana.
And yes: Oregon is a pothead state.  A friend who lives there also points out that there are a lot more Mormons living in Oregon than many people realize--and while Mormons tend to be fairly conservative, having a Mormon running for President may increase turnout, and perhaps cause some of the somewhat liberal Mormons (yes, I run into them here in Idaho) to vote Republican this time around.

There's a comment at the article by someone who says that he is seeing pro-Obama ads on TV in New Jersey.  In New Jersey?  If that isn't safe, Obama is going down, clown.


  1. Speaking as an Oregonian, I'm skeptical. The City of Portland and Multnomah County would vote overwhelmingly for the exhumed corpse of Ted Bundy if listed on the Democratic ticket, and their votes overwhelm the rest of the state's.

  2. As an Oregonian conservative, I wish wish wish this were true. But I just don't see us up for play. :(

  3. If Oregon is in play, that is news indeed.

    I'm not sure if my own state of Michigan is in play. But the State Republican Party has billboards up about Obama's support of same-sex marriage and abortion. From what I can tell of local political culture, the State GOP is trying to drive a wedge between the Black voters of the Detroit area and the President. And they're also trying to grab swing voters who are religious, but not predictably Republican.

    The unpredictable variable in Michigan is whether the name Romney will carry as much weight in the general election as it did in the Primaries. Because some people remember George Romney.

    RE: liberal Mormons

    I don't know if he is liberal, conservative, or moderate, but I do know that Orson Scott Card is Mormon.

    He's a sci-fi author, and publishes a weekly column on culture which occasionally mentions problems of national and international scope.

    OSC isn't a Republican, but was known to support G.W. Bush's international policy. At least once, I've seen him argue against stricter enforcement of immigration laws.

    He doesn't seem overly enthused about Romney, but does occasionally note details of Mormon life that are not well-known in the wider culture.
    (Since it's a novelists-opinion column, he feels free to address three different subjects...but he starts with commentary about the Romney family at the GOP convention.)