WASHINGTON, D.C. -- As the Republican convention gets underway, recent Gallup polling finds the GOP still trailing Democrats in U.S. adults' party affiliation but not nearly to the degree it did in June. The Democratic advantage over the Republican Party, which was an unusually large 11-percentage-points in June, is now six points. Though smaller, the current gap remains larger than it was in any of the first five months of the year.
Democrat registration has exceeded Republican registration as long as I can remember. But Republicans still win the Presidency and control of Congress for several reasons:
1. Republicans turn out to vote, not riot.
2. Much of Democratic registration is cultural. If your family has been registering Democrat since they arrived at Ellis Island or since Dr. King's assassination, it is a hard change. If you have lived in the same rent-controlled apartment for decades, your registration is unlikely to have changed.
3. Get out the vote drives are less successful in cemeteries than you might expect.
4. A surprising number of Democrats cross party lines. The "Reagan Democrats" voted for him for the same reason many voted for Trump: constantly being told that your race makes you an oppressor is not a way to make people like; many Democrats are sufficiently socially conservative that gay marriage and transgender bathrooms generate distaste, not support; "gun control" means proper aim; abortion remains a negative, even among Americans who call themselves "pro-choice."
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