Thursday, June 6, 2013

The Origins of Syria's Civil War

David P. Goldman at PJMedia has a very thoughtful article about the agricultural economic and water shortage crises that are a big part of what has provoked the Syrian Civil War.  Like me, he doesn't see any argument for U.S. intervention in this war.
Part of the answer to the first question is that Syria (like Egypt) as presently constituted simply is not viable as a country. Iraq might be viable, because it has enough oil to subsidize a largely uneducated, pre-modern population. As an economist and risk analyst (I ran Credit Strategy for Credit Suisse and all fixed income research for Bank of America), I do not believe that there is any way to stabilize either country. In the medium term, Turkey will lose national viability as well. I outlined some of the reasons for this view in my 2011 book How Civilizations Die (and why Islam is Dying, Too).

1 comment:

  1. Turkey was indeed an Islamic nation to be modelled after, as Ataturk intended the civil gov't to be separate from religion.
    But, the radicals have spoiled that, now.