I recalled just as we left Idaho, supposedly independent candidates with positions intermediate between Democrat and Republican appearing. When we arrived, one of the candidates for governor was a convicted felon. From the 9/15/26 Tennessee Lookout:
Hatley running as conservative outsider
Hatley has never run for political office in Tennessee and has spent most of his adult life as a businessman.
After a felony bank fraud conviction, Hatley said he turned his life around. He became the successful owner of Whisper Outdoor, which started by manufacturing hot tubs and has since expanded to producing golf carts, boats and off-road vehicles.
While running as an independent, Hatley described himself as “a very conservative guy.”
“I’ve always been pro-life and pro-guns,” Hatley said. “I want to be independent because I don’t want to have party pressure.”
A tenet of Hatley’s argument to voters is that he is pushing for the state to have an elected auditor to “figure out where the money is going,” because he doesn’t feel like the state is managing its budget correctly.
He is also touting his willingness to spend at least $7 million of his own money and doesn’t plan to do any fundraising.
“I don’t want anyone in my ear,” Hatley said. “It’s very important that I go in on day one with a clean slate, only thinking about things that make sense for Tennessee.”
Hatley was 21. We all do stupid things when young. Maybe not that stupid.
I do believe that once a felon has completed their sentence, continuing their disability from full citizenship is not a great idea. If you are that dangerous, perhaps you should still be inside. I do not think this particularly recommends you for public office, however.
Grok confirmed my intuition:
Yes, more pure independents (candidates not nominated by a political party) are running for Congress in the 2026 midterms than in typical recent cycles.
A July 2026 Newsweek analysis of candidate lists found 217 independent entries across U.S. House and Senate races (170 House, 47 Senate), covering 153 distinct contests. Later reporting (NPR and others) put the House figure around 170–173.
A more precise Ballot Access News tally (September 2026 print edition) counted 141 independent candidates for U.S. House seats. That is roughly double the recent norms and matches or exceeds the recent high-water mark:
- 2024: 57 independents for House (lowest since 2004)
- 2022: 78
- 2018: 84
- 2016: 72
- 2014: 82
- 2012: 104
- 2010: 140
- 2006–2008: ~63–65
Political scientist Bernard Tamas noted that a clear increase would reverse a decline in independent/third-party House candidacies lasting more than 25 years (the broader third-party + independent peak was 559 in 2000). Multiple outlets (The Nation, Independent Voter News, NPR) described 2026 as one of the largest surges of independent candidates in recent memory, coinciding with a record ~45% of Americans identifying as independents in Gallup data.
Notable high-profile pure independents include Senate candidates Dan Osborn (Nebraska), Brian Bengs (South Dakota), Todd Achilles (Idaho), and Seth Bodnar (Montana), several of whom benefited from Democrats stepping aside in red states, plus House candidates such as Bill Hill (Alaska).
Caveats: Early lists can include candidates who later dropped, failed ballot access, or ran as write-ins. “Independent” here means unaffiliated (not a nominee of the Democratic, Republican, Libertarian, Green, or other parties). Structural barriers (petition requirements, fundraising, spoiler concerns) remain high, and success rates for independents have historically been very low. Overall congressional candidate volume was also elevated in 2026, partly due to high open-seat numbers.
In short, the data support more independent candidacies than the recent average, especially versus the lower counts of the 2010s–early 2020s.
Why? It would be tempting to see this as a rejection of doctrinaire politics. This would be a good thing.
A cynical view is that these are Democrats in mufti, attempting to split likely Republican voters away to give Democrats seats that would otherwise be out of their reach. I asked Grok about this as well. While independent candidates are not concentrated Republican districts:
Where the serious/viable ones stand out
The independent candidates receiving the most attention—and those where Democrats have cleared the field or formally/informally backed them—are concentrated in Republican-leaning states for statewide races:
- Nebraska (Dan Osborn for Senate)
- South Dakota (Brian Bengs for Senate)
- Idaho (Todd Achilles for Senate; also House candidates like Sarah Zabel in a deep-red district)
- Montana (Seth Bodnar for Senate)
- Alaska (Bill Hill for House)
This reflects a pattern in which Democrats, facing weak brands in solidly red states, have stepped aside in hopes an independent can be more competitive against a Republican incumbent. Similar dynamics appear in some deep-red House districts (e.g., examples cited in Florida and Idaho).
At the same time, independents are also running in blue-leaning or competitive areas (New York, Illinois, California, Washington, Virginia, swing districts like Iowa’s 1st). One sitting House member, Kevin Kiley (California), switched from Republican to independent and is running as such in a redrawn district that leans Democratic.
This actually makes sense. Democrats know that socialism and child mutilation are so now heavily identified with their party that backing candidates without that "Democrat" label is likely to defeat Republicans. These IINOs (Independents In Name Only) could redeclare themselves after the election or simply caucus with the Democrats like Socialist Bernie Sanders does.
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