Saturday, September 29, 2018

Why Abortion is Not Going Away

The real reason for this endless mud throwing about Kavanaugh isn't the rape allegations, but fear that he will be part of overturning Roe v. Wade (1973)--a decision even some feminist regard as tactically and judicially unsound.  But because I know many of you are worried about the overturn:

Overturning Roe v. Wade (1973) will not abolish abortion.  When it was decided, abortion was legal and nearly unlimited in five states.  What it will do is return this decision to the state legislatures or people (through initiative process).  My guess is that at least 20 states will keep abortion legal, although perhaps with a few minor restrictions.  Oregon, for example, where it was unlawful before 1973, will keep it legal, probably throwing in some free joints to help her feel better about her "choice."

The pro-choice crowd can take the money they are spending on political and legal efforts to keep abortion legal until T-5 minutes and pay for airline or bus fare from North Dakota or Texas to California or New York State.  This is a big inconvenience for those who either can't figure how to use birth control, can't remember that getting wasted at a party with strangers is a bad idea, or are the relatively rare victims of rape or incest.  Still, this is not something women need done every month, or even every year, unless they fail to learn from past mistakes.

Even states where abortion was illegal before Roe v. Wade, like Oregon, had very high rates of legal abortions to save the life of the mother (166 abortions for every 1,000 live births).  Pretty clearly, doctors were not letting the law get in their way, and they aren't going to do so after an overturn.

1 comment:

Hank Archer said...

This whole Kavanaugh fiasco is about Democrat fear and panic. They can see the future. Democrats know that many of their most important causes (abortion, immigration, gun control, etc) are not pouplar with the majority of Americans and can only be imposed from above by the Courts. They can't win on these issues legistaltively.

And now they realize they are in danger of lossing control of the Supreme Court. When/if Kavanaugh is confirmed the court will be 5-4 conservation. If/when Ginsberg, Breyer or Sotomayor (all three are either ancient, ill or both) leave the court and replaced by Trump nominees it could go to 6-3, 7-2 or 8-1!!!! And when those vacancies occur the Republicans have no pressing need to replace them. Even if Kavanaugh is not confirmed, one of these three leaving would give the Court a 4-3 conservative majority, another would make it 4-2 and the third 4-1. Conservatives can wait for nominations to be approved as long as the Dems want to hold their breath.

Additionally, I think there is a possibility that what the Democrats have done to Kavanaugh will make some of the more moderate conservative judges currently on the court much less sympathetic to Democrat policies.