Tuesday, October 26, 2010

The Minnick/Labrador Race for Idaho House 1 Is Even

The October 26, 2010 Idaho Statesman reports on a survey completed October 20-22 that shows Minnick only three points ahead of Raul Labrador.  With a survey of 400 likely voters, the margin of uncertainty is 5%, so this is a "dead heat"--as even the left-wing Idaho Statesman headline admits.  RealClearPolitics has reclassified this race from Leans Democrat to Toss-Up.  Since Republicans dominate this state--and Minnick only won the 2008 race against a first-time Republican, and by only 2%--I think this is one of those races where a surprisingly small amount of last minute money could do make the difference, in a way that the same money thrown into the Boxer/Fiorina or Angle/Reid races likely will not.  I've already kicked in a bit of money to Labrador's campaign.

The other good news is that RealClearPolitics has now classified the House races as 223 Republican seats (Safe, Likely, or Leaning) and 178 Democrat seats (Safe, Likely, or Leaning).  There are now 34 Toss-up seats--and 32 of those are currently held by Democrats, and one was held by a Democrat until a special election in Hawaii early this year.

The Senate is still a nailbiter: 49 seats in the Democratic side, 45 in the Republican side, and six Toss-Ups--all of them currently held by Democrats.  I still think there is a chance that Boxer (who they now class as a Leans Democratic seat) could go to Fiorina, but I suppose that depends what percentage of California voters this time around are U.S. citizens. 

Let me emphasize: Carly Fiorina can't even fake a caring, decent human being.  I hold her in considerable disgust for how she ran HP when I worked there.  Please, if you live in California, vote for Empress Carly the First.  It's that important.

Rand Paul seems to have suddenly run away with the Kentucky U.S. Senate race.  The commentary of RealClearPolitics seems to think that it was Jack Conway's ads attacking Rand Paul's mocking of Christianity back when he was in college.  (Didn't we all do and say stupid things in college?  And some a good bit later?)  I would think this really worrisome story from the October 23, 2010 Louisville Courier-Journal about Louisville police officers tipping off a prosecutor that he was under investigation on drug charges might be a bigger problem, and that the Kentucky Attorney-General seems to have asked some questions about the investigation.  Who was the prosecutor?  Jack Conway's brother, Matthew Conway.  And what was Jack Conway's position at the time?  Kentucky Attorney-General.  This looks a little improper, I think.  I think Kentuckians might regard this as a reason to not vote for Conway.

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