Sunday, October 17, 2010
The Blow-Out Gets Bigger and Bigger
RealClearPolitics now says 212 seats are safe, likely, or lean Republican, with 42 seats toss-ups--and of those 42 seats, 40 are currently held by Democrats--and one of those (HI-1) was only taken by a Republican in a special election. The Senate isn't looking quite so hopeful: 46 seats are Republican safe (because not up this year), likely, or lean, with 5 toss-ups (all currently held by Democrats). That California and West Virginia are among the toss-up seats should send a message to Democrats everywhere: Obamacare and the stimulus are an epic fail.
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Hopefully the prediction are right, but as Glenn Reynolds says, "Don't get cocky."
ReplyDeleteMore importantly, if the the GOP does make major gains, they are only going to have about nine months to prove they deserved to win. It won't take much for the independent voters to abandon them in 2012.
Today Obama said 15 senate seats are up for grabs... which is about four more than anyone else had been predicting. I suspect that the real number is north of even that.
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