Why I Think The World-Shattering Nature of AI is Hype

This is not the first time a new technology has appeared with the fear that existing workers will soon be unemployed in vast numbers.  Remember that in 1790, 98%+ of Americans worked on farms. Yet we do not have a 98% unemployment rate.

The development of machine tools and other elements of the Industrial Revolution did not cause mass unemployment. Instead, there was something called "de-skilling." What had been highly skilled craftsmen were replaced by lesser skilled operatives using mills, lathes, and similar tools to mass produce identical parts that other lesser skilled workers assembled into clocks, guns, then eventually cars, aircraft, and houses. All these less skilled workers were paid far better than their craftsmen predecessors because the highly efficient factories were so profitable that employers could afford to pay high wages to attract workers.

How many Americans in 1790 owned a click or a watch.  Far fewer than today.  None could own modern marvels such as cars, revolvers, semiautomatic rifles, or dishwashers. Yes, none of those existed in 1790. That is my point. Each step forward created unimaginable wealth and creativity that allowed for new technologies and jobs to go with them. 

There are jobs that AI will destroy, the equivalent of individual flintlock rifle makers. Such makers continue to work into the mid-1800s. What they did was obsolete but they soldiered on and retired. I doubt many young men in 1840 looked for a chance to apprentice to one of these old-fashioned craftsmen,'who retired or died.