Once Again, "Conspiracy Theory" Turns Out to be "Spoiler Alert"

 9/26/25 Unherd:

The evidence on whether school closures were necessary during the pandemic was ignored, Barack Obama has claimed. He added that open conversation was shut down as the debate became overly politicised.

Speaking to British historian David Olusoga at the O2 Arena in London last night, the former US president said that “sometimes we weren’t looking at some of the evidence that said: ‘You know what, most kids really need school.’” He added that “it got politicised and became ideological and was viewed as a Left versus Right issue.”

On 30 January 2020, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recorded the first instance of Covid-19 in the US, and by the end of March all states had closed schools until further notice. In mid-September 2020, about 60% of US schools were fully virtual and only 20% were operating a traditional in-person schedule, while around 20% were hybrid. Well into 2021, many schools — primarily in Democratic states — were operating on reduced timetables with mask mandates and social distancing rules.

In May 2020, Obama called the federal government’s response to the pandemic “an absolute chaotic disaster”. Speaking to college graduates in an online commencement address, he said: “More than anything, this pandemic has fully, finally torn back the curtain on the idea that so many of the folks in charge know what they’re doing. A lot of them aren’t even pretending to be in charge.” Earlier that year, in March, the former president advocated for the cancellation of large gatherings so as to “slow the spread of the virus and save lives”. He added: “We have to look out for each other.”

Five years later, there is a wide consensus among experts that closing schools during the pandemic hampered children’s education and social development while failing to stop the spread of the disease. A report in the New York Times in March 2024 said that “today, there is broad acknowledgment among many public health and education experts that extended school closures did not significantly stop the spread of Covid, while the academic harms for children have been large and long-lasting.”

At the time, anyone who pointed out that the risk was concentrated among the elderly or immune-compromised was castigated as a science-denier.  Sweden had the sense to not shut everything down, concentrating on those at high risk.

A Good Tragedy Makes Every Criminal Rich

The COVID-19 panic created all sorts of fraud opportunities.   This 8/22/25 Department of Justice release tells of a guilty plea:

'A California man pleaded guilty yesterday for his role in a scheme to defraud the Small Business Administration (SBA) out of $15.9 million in loans through the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) and Economic Injury Disaster Loan (EIDL) programs."

How many were not caught?

Trust the Science

8/9/25 Nature article about effects of COVID vaccines on Healthcare workers:

"Conclusions

Based on our data, we conclude that SARS-CoV-2 booster vaccination does not contribute to the protection of the healthcare workforce in a post-pandemic setting. SARS-CoV-2 vaccination may even temporarily increase the likelihood of symptomatic infection and workday loss."

All those skeptics may have not been so stupid after all.  Blind trust is always bad.

If It Was Not At Springer-Verlag. I Would Suspect Parody

"Lying increases trust in science"

"This study concludes by emphasizing how problematic it is that, currently, the best way to increase public trust is to lie, suggesting that a better way forward (and the real solution to the transparency paradox) would be to resolve the problem of the public overidealizing science through science education and communication to eliminate the naïve view of science as infallible."

Yes, admitting you think lying will solve the problem of mistrust is such an effective solution to the mistrust.

If not for all the misleading information that we were fed about the origins of COVID, there would be no need to worry about that.

I Cannot Directly Blame the COVID Panic Batallions For This But...

Once they started hollering that the sky was falling instead of admitting that the risk was primarily on a small fraction of Americans who were at high risk, while the rest of us were not, this sort of fraud was inevitable.   7/10/25 DOJ press release:

"LOS ANGELES – A Nigerian man living in the San Gabriel Valley was sentenced today to 135 months in federal prison for defrauding California and Nevada out of $1.3 million in COVID-19 pandemic unemployment and disability insurance benefits by submitting more than 100 fraudulent applications using stolen identities and using the money to build a nightclub and mall in Nigeria."

The details reveal a person of considerable cunning and intelligence.  He obtained permanent residency through a fraudulent marriage.

Remember How Crazy It Seemed That EPA Had a SWAT Team?

As in observed at the time,  some agencies that would seem to be low risk actually confront some serious organized criminals.  5/29/25 Fox News article about $30 million fraud for COVID bailout funds:

" The wanted suspect is Armenian born and uses the name William McGrayan. He surrendered to police in the bust, slowly walking out of his front door towards the armored vehicle with his hands over his head. The criminal complaint says that an informant described McGrayan as "unhinged" claiming he talked about his ties to gangs in Armenia and threatened one person with a gun and baseball bat."

This Might Have Happened With Something Else Besides COVID As Well

But the more money available,  the more opportunities for grifting.  6/18/25 Department of Justice:

"The owner of a Chicago laboratory has been sentenced today to seven years in prison for his role in a COVID-19 testing fraud scheme.

"According to court documents, Zishan Alvi, 46, of Inverness, Ill., owned and operated a laboratory in Chicago that performed testing for COVID-19. In 2021 and 2022, Alvi caused claims to be submitted to the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services’ Health Resources and Services Administration (HRSA) for COVID-19 tests that were either not performed at all or not performed correctly. As part of the scheme, the laboratory released negative test results to patients, even though the laboratory either had not tested the specimens or the results were inconclusive because Alvi had diluted the tests to save on costs, rendering the tests unreliable. Alvi knew that the laboratory was releasing negative results for tests that were not performed or were inconclusive but still caused the laboratory to bill HRSA for those tests. Alvi also lied to laboratory directors to conceal his fraud. As a result of the fraudulent claims, HRSA paid the laboratory more than $14 million."

Dying With COVID Not of COVID

7/17/23 New York Times:

"Covid’s toll, to be clear, has not fallen to zero. The C.D.C.’s main Covid webpage estimates that about 80 people per day have been dying from the virus in recent weeks, which is equal to about 1 percent of overall daily deaths.

"The official number is probably an exaggeration because it includes some people who had virus when they died even though it was not the underlying cause of death. Other C.D.C. data suggests that almost one-third of official recent Covid deaths have fallen into this category. A study published in the journal Clinical Infectious Diseases came to similar conclusions."

This was a complaint made by medical examiners in some places, that people who died in motorcycle crashes were listed as COVID dead because they were positive for the virus.

How Much Money Was Stolen?

 3/21/25 New York Post:

The founder of a Minnesota-based charity was convicted Wednesday of hatching a brazen ruse that pilfered close to $250 million in pandemic relief funds from a federal program meant to feed hungry children in need – in what prosecutors said was the nation’s largest COVID-19 fraud scheme.

Aimee Bock, the 44-year-old founder of Feeding our Future, was found guilty on federal charges of wire fraud, bribery and conspiracy for recruiting a network of people and organizations to operate as many as 250 fraudulent meal assistance sites throughout the state, according to the US Attorney’s Office in Minnesota.

Prosecutors said her non-profit took advantage of a COVID rule change that allowed for student meal-assistance programs to operate off school grounds, as well as for the involvement of for-profit restaurants – blowing federal funding meant to feed underserved children during the pandemic on her “lavish” lifestyle. 

Okay, relative to the overall disaster that is our national budget, $250 million is not much.  How much was stolen by more competent (or connected) thieves? 

Okay We Are Fast Reaching Biowar Area

That lab in Reedley, Cal. operating out of a vacant warehouse with various infectious diseases and a thousand lab mice?  8/1/23 USA Today:

"Hundreds of mice also were found at the warehouse, where they were "kept in inadequate conditions in overcrowded cages" with no food or water, according to court documents. An associate with Prestige Biotech told investigators the mice were "genetically engineered to catch and carry the COVID virus," the documents added....

"Zieba said officials called in the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention after about 30 freezers and refrigerators were found, with some set to minus 80 degrees. The CDC detected at least 20 potentially infectious agents, according to court documents.

"Ultimately, what we did find is some viruses, such as HIV, COVID, chlamydia, rubella, malaria, things of that nature," Zieba said...."

UPDATE: The firm this operation purchased received a $360,000 tax credit from California.

Things That Make You Go "Hmmm."

7/27/23 NBC News:

"Local and federal authorities spent months investigating a warehouse in Fresno County, California, that they suspect was home to an illegal, unlicensed laboratory full of lab mice, medical waste and hazardous materials....

"According to court documents, city officials inspected the location at 850 I St. on March 3 for building violations and found various chemicals being stored. On March 16, an inspection by county public health officials allegedly turned up medical devices thought to have been developed on-site, such as Covid and pregnancy tests.

"Certain rooms of the warehouse were found to contain several vessels of liquid and various apparatus," court documents said. "Fresno County Public Health staff also observed blood, tissue and other bodily fluid samples and serums; and thousands of vials of unlabeled fluids and suspected biological material."

Chinese company that is not being very forthcoming about what they were doing.

Time to Default on Treasuries Held by the Bank of China?

As damages for hiding the extent of the pandemic when they knew about it and at least by negligence caused it?

Read the 6/17/23 New York Post editorial linked above.  Lots of American news media participated in the coverup but most Americans will never hear about it.

Lots of nations that owe China money should default on those debts for the same reason.

Lots of Surprises

Biology Methods and Protocols 9:1 (2022) did a really large survey of Czechs and looked for behaviors, physical traits, and dietary supplements to see if there was an association with risk of COVID-19 infection and severity once infected.  Many of the results are surprising:

Blood group (system ABO) had a moderate effect on the risk of COVID-19 infection and probably no effect on its course. Individuals with blood group 0 had a lower and those with blood group B had a higher risk of infection. The former concurs with the majority of published findings [24, 25]. The higher risk of the infection in subjects with blood group B also agrees with published data, but a meta-analytic study showed that blood group A usually has a stronger effect on the risk of COVID-19 than blood group B does [26]. Both effects were stronger and statistically significant in men, while in women, they were weaker and nonsignificant. In the second questionnaire, men with blood group B reported worse physical health, while those with blood group 0 reported better physical but worse mental health.

There is an enormous variation in blood types by ethnicity.  It makes you wonder how severe the national variations in infection and death rates might be tied to this.  U.S. blacks are 20% B; U.S. whites are 11% B.  Sweden did very well with a much less severe approach to the disease; they are also only 10% B.

Rh factor had no significant effect on the risk of infection. Rh-positivity had only nonsignificant effects on the severity of the course of COVID-19 (significant for the severity of symptoms index in men), which concurs with previously published data [26]. Similarly, Rh-heterozygosity had no significant effect on the risk or severity of COVID-19, but that could be due to the relatively low number of participants whose heterozygosity could be determined based on their Rh-phenotype and the Rh-phenotype of their parents. Our results indicate that the potential effects of the Rh-factor on the risk and severity of COVID-19 do deserve further attention. However, the investigation of this phenomenon should be preferably based on DNA-genotyped populations because Rh-positive heterozygotes have better health and Rh-positive homozygotes have worse health than Rh-negative individuals [12]....

Many behavioral traits had protective effects against the infection, while three factors, namely being actively involved in sport (in both men and women), frequent singing (only in men), and cold water swimming (in both men and women), increased the risk of infection. We can only speculate about the proximal reasons for these findings. It seems likely that these activities increase the risk of infection only indirectly, that is, by increasing the number of physical contacts with other people. It is, however, also possible that singing facilitates the transmission of the virus even directly. A large community-based cohort study performed on 387 109 UK citizens showed a positive effect of physical inactivity on the risk of COVID-19. However, the study took into account only hospitalized patients and not the numerous subjects without a severe course of COVID-19 [28]. The negative effect of sport on the risk of hospitalization thus probably reflects the negative effect of physical activity on the risk of severe COVID-19 (also observed in our study) rather than its negative effect on the risk of the SARS-CoV-2 infection.

The most substantial protective factor against COVID-19 infection was strict adherence to wearing masks and respirators; this factor was stronger in men than in women. Based on the results of laboratory tests, it is usually supposed that the wearing of masks, and even more so respirators, protects individuals against infection with SARS-CoV-2 (and not only against transmitting the infection to other people). On the other hand, the results of a meta-analytic study show that empirical evidence for this claim is relatively weak [29]. To the best of our knowledge, there is no published prospective longitudinal study that examined the effects of wearing masks on the risk of COVID-19 or its severity (up to October 2021).

Curious that they observe that with regard to masks "On the other hand, the results of a meta-analytic study show that empirical evidence for this claim is relatively weak..."  All that shaming and virtue signaling over something which seems to be effective but for which the evidence is weak.

The second most substantial protective factor was the consumption of vitamins and supplements. Analyses performed separately for women and men had shown that the strongest protective factor in women was walking in nature, possibly an indication of a solitary activity of more introverted women, because in men, walking in nature was a risk factor, albeit a weak and nonsignificant one, rather than a protective factor. The strongest protective factor for men was adherence to wearing masks and respirators. Sustaining social distance and frequent washing hands had only a weak and nonsignificant effect in both men (P > 0.069) and women (P > 0.699).

Again,  "weak and nonsignificant" protective factors on two highly hyped behaviors: social distancing and frequent hand washing.  Vitamin D turned out to be a significant factor in reducing infection risk.

We found that tobacco smoking (in both men and women) and partly also marihuana use (in women) have a relatively strong protective effect against SARS-CoV-2 infection. Marihuana use and, less probably, tobacco smoking could also have some protective effects against a severe course of COVID-19. The protective effects of tobacco smoking have been reported [7] and discussed [30] in some previous studies. However, most studies show adverse effects of smoking on the risk of a severe course of COVID-19 [2, 19, 28, 31, 32]. The former smoking habit seems to have three times stronger adverse effect than current smoking [33]. This result agrees with that of a meta-analytic study based on 233 studies [7]. We have no explanation for the contradiction between our data and reported data except for a hypothetical publication bias: it is possible that authors and editors may be reluctant to publish results showing any positive effects of smoking. It should be mentioned, though, that in our study, smokers reported worse mental health, and female smokers reported worse mental and physical health in the second questionnaire than nonsmokers did.

This is the biggest surprise to me, unless smoking creates an unfavorable environment for COVID-19.  Still not a good reason to smoke. 

The most unexpected result of this part of the study was the positive correlation between higher severity of the course of COVID-19 and adherence to wearing masks and respirators and, to a lesser extent, also with keeping social distance. We speculate that individuals with predispositions to a severe course of COVID-19, mainly those who were overweight, suffered immunodeficiency, COPD, or diabetes, put more effort into trying to avoid infection and more strictly adhered to recommendations concerning wearing masks and maintaining a safe distance. At the same time, if they did become infected, they had a more severe course of the disease than individuals without such risk factors. The strength of these associations was lower or nonexistent when the intensity of symptoms or duration of COVID-19 was used as a measure of the severity of COVID-19 (except for the rather strong association between maintaining safe distance and duration of COVID-19 in women). Also, it was much stronger when we used a self-rated severity of the course of COVID-19. It is possible that subjects who did not adhere to recommendations concerning personal protection against COVID-19 were later more reluctant to admit that they had a severe course of the disease. Alternatively, one could also speculate that more anxious people followed existing recommendations concerning personal protection against COVID-19 more strictly, but they also tended to have a more severe course of COVID-19 if they did become infected. On the other hand, the strength of all the associations remained approximately the same when we included in the model the reported intensity of anxiety and depression (partial Tau: masks 0.105 versus 0.109; distance 0.107 versus 0.107).

Why Checking Sources Matters

 Currently making the alt.right rounds is this:

This is official UK government data for ages 10-59 (brown line is vaxxed):

Source:
https://alexberenson.substack.com/p/vaccinated-english-adults-under-60

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/deathsbyvaccinationstatusengland

Berenson's article says:

I have checked the underlying dataset myself and this graph is correct. Vaccinated people under 60 are twice as likely to die as unvaccinated people. And overall deaths in Britain are running well above normal.

I don’t know how to explain this other than vaccine-caused mortality.

The basic data is available here, download the Excel file and see table 4:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/deathsbyvaccinationstatusengland 

Since I at am least skeptical of how honestly a lot of the vaccine claims are, I downloaded that spreadsheet. I looked in Table 4 and all the others.  There were no death rates.  Table 4 column headers contain nothing like this.  At most there is "Age-standardised mortality rate / 100,000 person-years."  There might be some data somewhere that shows death rates for vaccinated and unvaccinated in Britain, or perhaps derived from that spreadsheet, but that is not what Berenson claims.

This all reminds me of the current battles in the courts on gun ban laws after Bruen.  The "expert witnesses" their side keeps trotting out make false claims galore.  So many and so absurd that I could write a book about them.  My wife has a theory that their side's pursuit of billable hours for their lawyers and "expert witnesses" means that they do not care that they are wrong and will not win.  Prof. Saul Cornell charges California $500 per hour for his work.  So what if it is wrong?  That's a nice chunk of change for a college professor.

If You Think the COVID-19 Pandemic Crisis Reflects Some New Deficiency in American Society...

I just watched a fascinating PBS documentary called Plague at the Golden Gate.  

There are some striking similarities to recent experience.   Just do not try to match everything up to neatly: Dr. Fauci=Dr. Kinyoun.  Gov. Gage=Gov. Newsom.  It is not like that but there are elements that are a reminder of Mark Twain's aphorism: "History does not repeat but it often rhymes."

First: the setting.  (This part is not well covered in the documentary.  I am just giving the benefit of knowledge.)  San Francisco was a hotbed of Democratic hatred of Asians who competed with white workers for jobs and the city had passed repeated laws ostensibly for public health reasons, but really to oppression the Chinese.  (Race has always been a Democratic Party tool for engaging poor unskilled workers.)  The laundries must be only in brick buildings to drive the Chinese out of the laundry business. 

The Cubic Air Law limiting housing density as a way of squeezing Chinese out of low rent housing.  A law requiring crew cuts for men going into the county jail because Chinese violators of the Cubic Air Law found three hots and a cot preferable to paying a $10 fine.  (Many probably did not have it.)  The Pigtail Law was an affront to Chinese men and Federal courts struck it down.  If public health was the reason why only men?  Ho Ah Kow v. Nunan, 12 F. Cas. 252 (C.C.D. Cal. 1879) 1

In 1900, bubonic plague cases start hitting Chinatown.   There was a widely held belief including among scientists that Chinese were especially prone to it compared to whites and the documentary runs with the racism explanation.   I can see two other explanations:

A. Chinatown and its counterparts were poor sections of town likely more rat-infested than most.

B. Whites are more likely immune to bubonic plague because the CCR5-delta 32 mutation that appeared during the Black Death provides some of full immunity (depending on whether you get it from one side or the other).  It also provides similar protection against AIDS and various hemorrhagic fevers.

Generations of Europeans have had multiple passes of bubonic plague to build up that mutation's frequency in the white gene pool.   By comparison it is not very common in East Asia.

Perhaps racism, perhaps some real differences in likelihood of infection.

The doctor with the Marine Hospital Service (the predecessor to the Public Health Service) at Angel Island was not just a doctor but a pre-eminent bacteriologist.  His response to the early cases was a quarantine of Chinatown and then a full lock down.  They started building a wall.

As it became apparent that there were cases outside Chinatown he became increasingly arrogant and demanding.  Threatening to quarantine S.F. and then all of California upset the people that really mattered, who insisted there was no plague and besides it was only the Chinese who had it, and Dr. KInyouan was transferred to Detroit after a corrupt deal was created by President McKinley, California government and business interests.  ("Take him to Detroit!")

His replacement was a South Carolinian with modest credentials.  He went into Chinatown and made friends and received cooperation where Dr. Kinyouan just received federal court injunctions.   He eventually figured out the role of the rats.  He started a rat catching campaign and ended the epidemic.  Being a white Southerner he did something scandalous: he paid his Chinese workers the same as his white workers.

Economic interests, a perception that individual rights were being destroyed over a disease that many denied existed.  Vaccine hesitancy with an experimental vaccine.  Everything is there in slightly different forms like an episodes of Sliders.

I Would Not Read Too Much Into This

9/24/22 Atlantic article about a prominent Belgian immunologist who developed lymphoma and therefore accelerated his COVID booster because lymphoma treatment would make him immunocompromised and therefore higher risk for COVID. Amazingly(?) his lymphoma spread far faster than normal after the booster.  He is careful to note that this might be coincidence but also there some theoretical models that might explain this unobvious connection.  I am still not prepared to join the COVID-19 vaccine puts you at higher risk crowd but that the Atlantic published this story is bloody amazing.   It does suggest that maintaining the narrative may not suppress all news media examination of these questions. 

I See a First Amendment Challenge

8/28/22 New York Times:

"Trying to strike a balance between free speech and public health, California’s Legislature on Monday approved a bill that would allow regulators to punish doctors for spreading false information about Covid-19 vaccinations and treatments."

I am wondering if a government taking your medical license is really lawful.  There is a lot of claims being made that seem to not survive careful analysis, but even if a doctor says something incorrect if he actually believes it to be true, his First Amendment rights are being denied.  California fascist government.  No surprise. 

Why Schools Need to Teach Science

 Even though it must be racist/male/colonialist or something else bad.  I received a link to this:

Van Welbergen is a specialist in biomedicine who deals with chronic cases. He has postgrad work in women’s health in pharmacology, bio-pharmacology, advanced pain management and aesthetic medicine, which is why he was able to detect developments of patients that were seemingly out of character or did not make sense in terms of the patients’ diagnostic history.

“One of the tests that we run routinely as a diagnostic support tool is red blood cell morphology – it means that certain conditions can change the shape of a perfectly good red blood cell from a lovely little donut with a dimple to very strange shapes,” he explained during a recent appearance on the “Dr. Jane Ruby Show.”

The host, Dr. Jane Ruby, pointed out that there are two main ways the injections – whatever is in them – can be transferred to another person who is not vaccinated. This could be through inhalation or skin-to-skin contact.

Van Welberger said that in looking at the pure blood smears, which he took straight from an individual to the microscope, he noticed that the unstained blood “started picking up unusual, tiny structures” that he has never seen before.

He then presented data showing that red blood cells – which are usually round and doughnut-shaped – have been damaged by the spike protein. Those cells have become quadrangles or octagon-shaped instead of round. They have become messed up due to the spike protein damage and cannot be restored. (Related: Is graphene oxide what caused Japanese authorities to suspend Moderna’s “contaminated” covid vaccines?)

“You can’t repair red blood cells,” Van Welverger explained. “So these things are basically lost to us.”

From Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center:

Red blood cells make up almost half of your blood. The lifespan of a red blood cell is around 120 days.

The "expert" must have skipped freshman biology.   Or just not know as much as I knew by junior high.

There is so much of this disinformation floating around the Internet.

Instant Karma's Gonna Get Ya'

5/31/22 Legal Insurrection reports that California Gov. Newsom met with the only major Western leader more draconian than himself about vaccination and lockdowns than himself (New Zealand Prime Minister Ardern)--and they both came down with COVID!

The Scandal of All Scandals

 5/10/22 Daily Wire:

Anthony Fauci, Francis Collins and other bigwigs at the National Institutes of Health reaped more than $350 million in secretive “royalty” payments from drug companies and other third parties over a 10-year period, according to an explosive new report from a watchdog organization.

The report from OpenTheBooks.com said the royalty payments, including at least 23 to Fauci and 14 to his former boss, Collins, were paid out between 2010 and 2020. Government scientists got the payments for being credited as “co-inventors” of various treatments and pharmaceutical products, according to the report.

“Because those payments enrich the agency and its scientists, each and every royalty payment could be a potential conflict of interest and needs disclosure,” OpenTheBooks.com co-founder and CEO Adam Andrzejewski wrote. “NIH is a revolving door of tens of billions of dollars in government grant-making coupled with hundreds of millions of dollars in private – non-transparent – royalty payments.”

Even if these scientists in some way contributed to these inventions, that there is a clear conflict of interest between their roles as government employees issuing grants and recipients of royalties.  Through 2020 is before COVID-19 vaccines went to market.