Tuesday, April 14, 2026

Mine Clearance is Hard

Especially because the Iranians apparently made no attempt to map where they put them. Also, the mines attempt dropped are pretty sophisticated.  They listen for large propellers and a large magnetometer reading, like a tanker. Also, it counts ships, going off after some programmed number 

The U.S. took its dedicated mine clearance ships (non-steel hulls) out of service in 2025. The current clearing is slow and likely not 100% certain. When a few months of now, a tanker gets blown up, count on the Democrats to blame Trump not Iran.

I have heard it suggested that Trump may not be in any hurry to clear the mines. Oil sales by the U.S. are helping our balance of payments situation; reduced or uncertain delivery of oil to China disarms the nation with which we are most likely to go war with before 2030; it starves Iran's sales to nations not participating in sanctions against Iran. 

Iran could build a pipeline to ports outside the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's oil fields are in or on the Persian Gulf or the Caspian Sea. From reading maps, that looks like 500 or more kilometers from the oil fields to a port on the Gulf of Oman. (And very mountainous.) How many days per kilometer does it take to build an oil pipeline?

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