Interesting Speculation on Trump's Tariff Strategy

I saw an interesting speculation as to what Trump's seemingly ferocious tariff strategy really seeks.  Imminent recession reduces demand, causing current stock market fall.  Falling stock market drives up bond prices which are a safe haven when the stock market is weak.  Rising prices drive down interest rates.   Falling interest rates goose the economy. 

We apparently have $9 trillion in Treasury bonds coming due for redemption, which means we need to sell another $9 trillion in Treasury bonds to cover that.  If we refinance that debt at 4%, we will pay $360 billion a year in interest.   If he can get 10 year Treasury yield down to 3.5%, we pay $315 billion a year in interest.   $45 billion a year less is a big win for reducing future debt.

Look carefully at those numbers and ask yourself,  "How did we get into this mess?  How extreme do the solutions need to be?"

Here is a history of Treasury bonds. Worrisome, when you see how we went from 7 year bonds to 30 year bonds, and surprisingly recently. 

Here is a 53 year history of 10-year Treasury bond yields.   The low point was when COVID hit in 2020.  I see no way to get there below 2%.  Notice the dramatic drop in yields during the recession at the start of the Reagan presidency.  (The gray stripes are recessions.)