Thursday, July 21, 2022

Why Conspiracies Fail

It is a common belief that large elaborate conspiracies dominate our world.  The names change every few generations with a few persisting: the Illuminati; the Jews (in several variations such as International Jewish Bankers, all Jews, Jewish Intellectuals), Trilateralists, the Council on Foreign Relations.  The latest versions are the World Economic Forum, the Davos crowd (or are they the WEF? too many different sources of confusion).  

All genuine conspiracies have two major failings: inability to conspire and intelligence agents who go undercover. 

Anyone who has ever tried to conspire with five co-workers to pick a lunch spot knows that the often trivial differences in preferences and goals make this an astonishingly complex process for something as trivial in importance and net gain as picking where to get a meal that will cost each of you about $10 and be over in 40 minutes.  Now, imagine hundreds or thousands of egomaniacs coming to even a common goal (starving the middle class to death, enslaving us, confiscating all of our property, replacing every white person with a BIPOC) much less agreeing on a strategy or timetable.

The other problem is that conspiracies are readily spied upon by government agencies or even private enemies even when they are not at least in part government entrapment schemes.  

As a friend active in the antiwar movement of the 1970s observed: "You could always tell who the FBI agent was: he was the guy who thought burning down the ROTC building was a really neat idea."

Anytime three or more people gather to plot an action against a government (Czarist, National Socialist, Victorian England denying Irish nationhood,  U.S. Government, French Indo-China) I think it is a good bet that at least one of your fellow "freedom fighters" will be an agent or someone who can be turned by the threat of severe punishment.  Think of spending the next twenty years inside a federal prison and how rapidly turning on your cellmates will seem a fit response to the stupidity that one of them did to put you on the Checka's interrogation list.  

It cannot be your own loose talk or sloppy use of the dead drop. Even if you can intellectually admit that you screwed up, the prospect of 20 years in federal prison will rapidly persuade you otherwise.   If you are confronting something far worse (20 years of Siberian exile, drawing and quartering, 10 years in an Arctic forced labor camp, Buchenwald) the transformation from courageous revolutionary to state's witness will be blindingly quick.

If you are ever in the horrible situation of seeing the cattle cars being loaded up with political dissidents or door-to-door searches for Jews: avoid conspiracies.   You will fight the "It has to have a salad bar/not Japanese again" problem and the confidential informant problem.  Lone wolves really are a huge difficulty for governments.  

Where will they strike next?  We cannot concentrate all of our Gestapo agents in one place without leaving other places exposed.  

Curiously, it now appears that the much feared Gestapo had a tiny number of agents in prewar Germany.  It was the willingness of ordinary Germans to report on their peers that made the Gestapo so powerful.  Today, it is the promiscuous use of antisocial media.

A friend's uncle was an engineer and made some uncomplimentary remarks about Hitler just before leaving work.  The Gestapo were waiting for him when he finished bicycling home.  Only his value as an engineer prevented six weeks in custody from ending much worse.

A lone wolf is admittedly not as destructive as the elaborate plan that takes out the Lubyanka prison in one earthshaking  explosion.  But 100 snipers attacking government offices at random intervals will create chaos and terror entirely disproportionate to the damage.  Shooting out the entrance doors to a government building just as workers for the Ministry of Love are arriving need not kill a single employee.  If such actions happen repeatedly at unpredictable intervals, employees will stop wearing the Anti-Sex League sash and coming to work.  Actually avoiding killing anyone is a win; the resulting chaos exposes how little love the workers have for Big Brother and creates no martyrs for the cause of LGBTWTF.  (This is a new variation of the most desperately mutating identity tag in history.  The Life of Brian battles over what to call the different Judean Liberation Front factions is downright reasonable by comparison 

A single lone wolf may well attract other members to be an uncoordinated pack.  Three snipers at work from different hides (one on a rooftop, one at fourth floor, and one from an automobile hide such as was used in the DC sniper murders after 9/11) along Kurfurst Strasse into the Foreign Ministry are 3x the work to find as one conspiracy.

This is of course a purely historical evaluation.  I believe the midterm elections will deliver a defeat to the National Socialist Billionaires Party that might actually lead to Congressional oversight.


  1. I tend to agree with Bill Whittle about conspiracy theorists...

    "I've met a number of these people. I know this is harsh, but I'm sick of watching the damage they are doing to this civilization: these people are, to a man, complete losers. Losers. They are desperate and sad people who need to believe in some dark secret to give meaning to their lives."

    This was originally posted on Bill's old website "Eject Eject Eject."

    1. For the most part, Leon's post was clear and easily understood. However, toward the end he really went overboard with his Rah Rah .Gov diatribe. That might have been acceptable back in the 50's, but it hasn't been true for a long, long time now. Granted it was re-published 15 years ago, but still, that is long after various curtains were pulled back to expose the shenanigans of TPTB. A little disappointed that BW would have allowed that to be posted to his site. It desperately needed some editing to clean it up.

  2. Treason doth never prosper, what's the reason? For if it prosper, none dare call it treason. Sir John Harington, Epigrams

  3. I think the mistake you, and others, are making on this subject is that the historical anti-government conspiracy was a group effort from the bottom against the leadership of the government. Yes, those are the focus of government agents to stop.
    However, this conspiracy is essentially backwards. It is a top down government effort to change the world and dramatically increase the control of the bigger countries over the smaller countries and all the various populations of as many as possible. It seems to have been tried earlier in history, but current conditions make it much more likely to succeed. It doesn't take many people to work it in this direction, since they already control the many levers of power. Much easier to attract the faithful to the effort, when they can be reasonably sure that the various gestapos are controlled by your side. Much of the population has already been indoctrinated to either support you, or to ignore or disbelieve the situation. Too many people are swayed by Normalcy Bias, and will be very late to the party. Add in the fact that history isn't taught in the schools to any degree, and what is taught is a lie, and you have a recipe for disaster. The interesting thing is that with the current pro-gun atmosphere, they seem to be running in a bit of a panic. An armed population is a very dangerous thing for them to be dealing with, and all previous power grabs were done after disarming the people. So far, it doesn't look like they are going to be able to do that here, and I suspect that even the most heavy handed attempt will still trigger a blowback that will clean the board. That they have hamstrung the military with various agendas was rather stupid. Appears stupid, anyway. That is actually a bit worrying, as they haven't been quite that stupid overall.