Nothing to Worry About: Iran Has 408 kg of 60% Enriched Uranium

5/31/25 Wall Street Journal:

"The International Atomic Energy Agency said in a confidential report circulated to member states that Iran had grown its stockpile of 60%-enriched uranium to 408.6 kilograms from 274.8 kilograms in early February, an increase of around 50%. The Wall Street Journal viewed a copy of the report."

For those reluctant to do the math, 15kg appears to be supercritical mass for a U-235 bomb.  Usually 90% U-235 is minimum for a bomb.  This would suggest 244 kg of U-235 with a lot more centrifuging or 16 Hiroshima-sized bombs.  Unlike an implosion device, U-235 can be turned onto a bomb that requires no testing.   We did not test Little Boy (a U-235 bomb) before using it on Nagasaki.  There was no need.  Our first sign of an Iranian successful product might well be a mushroom cloud over Jerusalem or Washington. DC.  Either one would cause thermonuclear war.  

Taiwan's Nuclear Weapons Program

3/1/25 CNN World:

"Taipei, TaiwanCNN — 

In January 1988, one of Taiwan’s most senior nuclear engineers defected to the United States after passing crucial intelligence on a top-secret program that would alter the course of Taiwan’s history.

"Colonel Chang Hsien-yi was a leading figure in Taiwan’s nuclear weapons project, a closely guarded secret between the 1960s and ‘80s, as Taipei raced to develop its first nuclear bomb to keep pace with China.

"He was also a CIA informant.

"Chang exposed Taiwan’s secret nuclear program to the United States, its closest ally, passing intelligence that ultimately led the US to pressure Taiwan into shutting down the program – which proliferation experts say was near completion."

Our government's desire to stop the spread of nuclear weapons made perfect sense, especially because Taiwan was still far from a functioning democracy at the time.  Unlike Chang, I think a nuclear armed Taiwan would be a deterrent to PRC invasion.  The possibility of invasion leading to even a small nuclear weapon on Three Gorges dam would be a powerful deterrent.  It would be suicidal for Taiwsn to do that,  buy this is in the nature of MAD: neither side wants to do something that might provoke such an action. 

I suspect that whatever our suppression of their effort caused,  they have probably returned to where they were.   As someone I know described Japan's nuclear weapons capability relative to the same problem: a screwdrivers's turn away.