It’s a state where public polling shows him Obama ahead of Mitt Romney—by 50%-41% in a September USAToday poll and 50%-42% in a Public Policy Polling poll in June. Obama carried Oregon 57%-40% in 2008, much better than John Kerry’s 51%-47% in 2004.Every dollar spent advertising in a state where Obama has an easy win is a dollar not being spent in the swing states, like Ohio. Is it possible that the Obama campaign is actually worried about Oregon? Barone suggests that one possible reason is that:
someone in the Obama campaign somewhere are concerned that Libertarian party nominee Gary Johnson may cut into Obama’s vote in Oregon, which could make Mitt Romney competitive as George W. Bush was in 2000. After 2000 many left-leaning voters were wary of third party candidates like Nader, for fear that votes for them would elect a Republican. But Johnson differs from Nader in one important way: the former governor of New Mexico favors liberalizing the laws against marijuana.And yes: Oregon is a pothead state. A friend who lives there also points out that there are a lot more Mormons living in Oregon than many people realize--and while Mormons tend to be fairly conservative, having a Mormon running for President may increase turnout, and perhaps cause some of the somewhat liberal Mormons (yes, I run into them here in Idaho) to vote Republican this time around.
There's a comment at the article by someone who says that he is seeing pro-Obama ads on TV in New Jersey. In New Jersey? If that isn't safe, Obama is going down, clown.