Friday, April 11, 2025

Kangaroo Market Continues

Bounce, bounce,  bounce!  It would be interesting to know how many of yesterday's sellers are today's buyers.   If they are the same,  we are seeing day traders not expressions of mistrust. 

If this is unclear to you, let me explain.  In the 1990s, I worked for a company called DSC, which bought a startup for which I worked called Optilink.  I started plotting the market motions of our stock.  Along with a generally rising price which made our Employee Stock Purchase Plan a major source of wealth, there a short-term oscillation that a friend described as a drunken sine wave.  At the time, there many programmed trades.  A while would buy 100,000 shares at say, $30/share and sell it the following day for $32/share.  $200,000 gain more than covered the transaction costs. 

I started doing the same.  Of course, 100,000 shares was out of my range, but even 1000 shares was.  The transaction costs and a 40% marginal income rate meant that it was profitable but not enough to justify the risks involved.   When our stock crossed above $45/share, I stopped. 

This was not insider trading.  I had no special knowledge of what our company as a whole was doing.  This was strictly being a minnow following the whales.  (Bad metaphor; suggest better?)

No comments:

Post a Comment