As of today, RealClearPolitics.com is showing 210 House seats likely or leaning Republican, and 39 seats rated as tossups. Of those 39 seats, 37 are held by Democrats, 2 by Republicans. I expect that most of those tossup seats are going to go Republican--and I suspect some of the "lean Democrat" seats are actually going to go Republican as well, because of a shortage of recent polls in districts that are considered so traditionally Democrat that no one is taking the Republican challenger seriously. As an example, ID-1, held by Walt Minnick is considered "Likely Democrat"--but the race is, I think, a bit closer than that.
UPDATE: As of October 11, they are now showing 211 House seats likely or leaning Republican, and 39 states tossups.
I will be stunned if the number that goes for the Republicans is not twice that number.
ReplyDeleteLets hope so, but be careful of the game of overtalking GOP chances so that the media can then spin the actual number of seats taken as some sort of Democratic victory even when they lose the House.
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