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Saturday, January 1, 2022

The Lack of Critical Thinking is Worrisome

 11/29/21 Eco magazine reproduces a Cambridge press release:

The Arctic Ocean has been getting warmer since the beginning of the 20th century -- decades earlier than records suggest -- due to warmer water flowing into the delicate polar ecosystem from the Atlantic Ocean.

An international group of researchers reconstructed the recent history of ocean warming at the gateway to the Arctic Ocean in a region called the Fram Strait, between Greenland and Svalbard....

"When we looked at the whole 800-year timescale, our temperature and salinity records look pretty constant," said co-lead author Dr Tesi Tommaso from the Institute of Polar Sciences of the National Research Council in Bologna. "But all of a sudden at the start of the 20th century, you get this marked change in temperature and salinity -- it really sticks out."

"The reason for this rapid Atlantification of at the gate of the Arctic Ocean is intriguing," said Muschitiello. "We compared our results with the ocean circulation at lower latitudes and found there is a strong correlation with the slowdown of dense water formation in the Labrador Sea. In a future warming scenario, the deep circulation in this subpolar region is expected to further decrease because of the thawing of the Greenland ice sheet. Our results imply that we might expect further Arctic Atlantification in the future because of climate change."

The researchers say that their results also expose a possible flaw in climate models, because they do not reproduce this early Atlantification at the beginning of the last century.

"Climate simulations generally do not reproduce this kind of warming in the Arctic Ocean, meaning there's an incomplete understanding of the mechanisms driving Atlantification," said Tommaso. "We rely on these simulations to project future climate change, but the lack of any signs of an early warming in the Arctic Ocean is a missing piece of the puzzle."

Gee, maybe the climate simulations are wrong? 

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