The Democrats' Asian Voter Problem

 From Substack:

The Democrats’ problems with Hispanic voters are, at this point, well-known and well-documented. But what of Asian voters, the other fast-growing part of the nonwhite population? A close look at political trends suggests that here too a problem could be emerging.

The Asian vote in 2020 was a relative bright spot for Democrats in that, unlike other components of the nonwhite vote, Democrats’ Presidential margins compared to 2016 suffered only a tiny decline (less than a point) compared to a 7 point decline among black voters and a 16 point decline among Hispanic voters (Catalist two party vote data). In addition, Asian turnout went up more than other racial groups including whites according to both the Census Bureau and Catalist.

Add in the fact that Asians are the fastest-growing racial group in the country and Democrats might have thought that, at least here, the nonwhite vote was an uncomplicated and burgeoning asset for them.

However, even in 2020 there were troubling signs of attrition in Asian support for Democrats. The Asian vote for Democratic Congressional candidates weakened in some key races, particularly in California. And in Presidential voting in New York City, the very fast-growing Asian population in Queens swung strongly toward Trump. Matthew Thomas on his substack analyzed the data: