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Thursday, January 30, 2020

Unsurprising, But Still Scary

Over at Volokh Conspiracy:
In the 2018 GSS, respondents were asked for whom they voted in 2016 (PRES16) or for whom they would have voted if they had voted (IF16WHO): Clinton, Trump, someone else, or no one.

On the verbal ability test (WORDSUM), not surprisingly the median number of vocabulary questions correct was the same for both Clinton and Trump supporters: 6 out of 10 words correct.  The mean verbal ability score for Trump supporters was 6.15 words correct, while the mean verbal ability score for Clinton supporters was 5.69 correct, a difference of nearly a half a question on a 10-question test.  This moderate difference is statistically significant at p<.0005.

Further, Trump supporters score significantly higher on verbal ability (6.15 correct) than the rest of the public combined (5.70 correct), whereas Clinton supporters score significantly lower on verbal ability (5.69 correct) than the rest of the public combined (5.98 correct)....
Testing the hypothesis that Trump supporters have greater science knowledge than those who supported Clinton in 2016, on six questions Trump supporters offer the correct answer significantly more often than Clinton supporters: those about lasers, radioactivity, viruses, the father's contribution to the biological sex of the child (BOYORGRL), whether "according to astronomers" the universe began with a huge explosion (BIGBANG1), and that the earth goes around the sun and that it takes a year to do so (combined EARTHSUN and SOLARREV).

On one science knowledge question—whether the center of the earth is hot (HOTCORE)—the superior performance of Trump supporters over Clinton supporters is borderline significant (1-sided Fisher's Exact Test p=.05-.10).

On two questions, the structure of atoms (ELECTRON) and continental drift (CONDRIFT), Trump supporters score slightly, but insignificantly, better than Clinton supporters. On none of these nine science questions do Trump supporters score worse than Clinton supporters.

When one compares Clinton supporters to the rest of the public combined, Clinton supporters perform significantly worse than the rest of the public on the same six science questions on which Trump supporters perform better than Clinton supporters.
Indeed, less than half of 2016 Clinton supporters (49.6%) are able to answer correctly both of two related questions: whether the earth goes around the sun or the sun goes around the earth (EARTHSUN) and whether that takes a day, a month, or a year (SOLARREV).  Remember these two questions are multiple choice! You would have a 50-50 chance of guessing correctly on the first part: whether the earth goes around the sun or vice versa. Sadly, the general public didn't do hugely better than Clinton supporters, with only 57.1% (compared to 49.6%) knowing that the earth goes around the sun and that it takes a year to do so.
That Clinton voters are still geocentrists does not surprise me.  That almost half our population this ignorant scares me.  What are public schools doing?

This 2018 National Science Foundation survey found that only 73% believe the Earth goes around the Sun. If the remaining 27% were all Democrats (not likely) it would explain the GSS number.

6 comments:

  1. Public schools are doing exactly what they were meant to.
    Indoctrinate useful idiots to serve their masters.

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  2. TCK +10

    Clayton, I am saying this respectfully because I think that you are an honorable man, but if this surprises you, then you need to review your understanding of the dynamic.

    First, while it might seem a small quibble, they are not "public schools"; they are government schools. They are staffed mostly, and administered almost entirely, by people who believe and teach that there is no God, that humans are the result of time and chance acting upon matter, and that the premise of good and evil is a cultural affect (and yes, not an effect).

    The schools are not failing; it only seems that way to those sufficiently naive to think that their goal is something other than what they produce.

    Arguendo, for just a moment, consider that they are actually being wildly successful. How would that change your thinking about any number of things?

    For example, what has and is happening to DJT is unfolding according to plan. During the cold war, the U.S. had "stay behind teams" implanted throughout Europe. Their mission, as apparent "civilians", was to melt into the populace if the Soviets advanced through the Fulda Gap. The plan was to sabotage and sow havoc and destruction behind what then would be enemy lines.

    The previous Odministration performed the same actions to the incoming DJT one. They created hundreds of positions on the NSC, and implanted the stay behind personnel throughout government including at the highest levels of the DoJ.

    Once is happenstance. Twice is coincidence. Three times, it's enemy action. How long, and how many trillion$ has the "Department of Education" had to "fix" the problem? Consider that the result is their goal.

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  3. BFR: Government schools were very good when my wife and I were young. They were not bad when our kids went through them in Idaho. Things have degenerated very quickly. Also a lot of those Clinton voters have the "advantage" of inner city schools.

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  4. The collapse of the idea of truth is at the core.

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  5. On these kinds of surveys you will always get at least a small percentage who lie and give outrageous answers for their own amusement, and unless the survey-makers use extraordinary measures you'll get a large percentage. That's how you you get those survey results showing that some shocking large percentage of people believe that Winston Churchill was a fictional character, and that the US Civil War was fought in the 1930s as a result of the election of President Ben Franklin.

    It's not that almost half the population believes that the Sun goes around the Earth; it's that almost half the population is willing to claim that they believe this, in an anonymous survey. Determining how that breaks down into "people who do believe this," "people who are thumbing their noses at Authority," and "people who are lying about their heliocentric beliefs because they fear persecution by Vast Right-Wing Theocracy" is left as an exercise for the survey maker.

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  6. Someone elects ignorant fools like Rep. Hank Johnson who believed that sending too many sailors to Guam might capsize it. Ditto for Maxine Waters.

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