Conservative. Idaho. Software engineer. Historian. Trying to prevent Idiocracy from becoming a documentary.
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"And we know that all things work together for good to them that love God, to them who are the called according to his purpose." -- Rom. 8:28
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Wednesday, May 11, 2016
Yup! It's 1980 Again!
When hard-left Ted Kennedy tried to take away the nomination from "centrist" Jimmy Carter, and the bad blood within the party of Bull Connor gave the election to someone that mainstream Republicans thought was too extreme. See here.
If you're trying to project Ronald Reagan onto Trump, you're setting yourself up for a gigantic disappointment.
Reagan won in 1980 because Carter was a visible and obvious failure: 8% unemployment, 15% inflation, the Iran debacle, etc.
And because he was a genial, optimistic figure with a record of success as Governor of California.
And because he was the consensus candidate of the Republican Party, winning 60% of the primary vote. Bush was second, with 24%, and became Reagan's running mate.
Incidentally, it was the Republicans, not the Democrats, who were divided in 1980: John Anderson, who got 12% in the primaries, ran as a third-party candidate, drawing 7%.
Cartoonist Scott Adams has described Trump as "a master persuader". I agree this much: he has persuaded a lot of people that John Boehner's golf partner and Mitch McConnell's funder is going to show those "establishment Republicans" what for, and that a good friend of the Clintons is going to smash the liberal establishment.
Anderson largely took Democratic votes, but I well remember ta;lking to disspirited Democrats during the 1980 campaign voting for Carter to keep abortion legal.
Obama is a visible and obvious failure: low workforce participation...
Not visible to most people.
0% interest rates...
Of no significance to anyone in the debtor class, which vastly outnumbers the saver/investor class at this time.
the Benghazi debacle...
A one-off incident which has been buried, both literally and figuratively. Iran was a much larger on-going problem.
What % of the primary vote has Trump received?
Even after his recent wins, Trump has only 41.3% of the Republican primary vote. 10,690,472 of 25,881,183.
Clinton has 11,892,480 primary votes. Sanders has 8,718,922.
I don't think Trump is going to stomp Clinton. As soon as Trump has been confirmed as the Republican nominee at the convention, Clinton will be forced out. She'll be told that the FBI has ironclad evidence, and that she will be indicted and convicted for violations of the laws on classified documents ...unless she announces that she has to withdraw from the election for health reasons. (Which would be half plausible; a lot of people think she looks unwell.)
That will leave the Democrat convention about to meet without an agreed nominee. They will have to pick someone. Who? Not Sanders, an old white man. Or Biden, the same only dull. No, it will be someone younger, hipper, female, non-white, with no "baggage", and national stature. A celebrity who can match Trump's name recognition. Michelle Obama. You read it here first.
There are two possible outcomes after that. One is that the friendly MSM waft Michelle to victory while shredding Trump (whose social media channels will be stifled). Bear in mind that Obama's favorable/unfavorable rating is still pretty good, and the glamor aura still envelopes her.
The other is that the American people finally become utterly sick of the Obamas, political correctness, etc., Mexican rioters continue to attack Trump rallies, crime continues to rise, Obama doubles down on his transgender madness, the economy goes majorly south (a distinct possibility, and Trump cruises to a 40-state landslide.
If you're trying to project Ronald Reagan onto Trump, you're setting yourself up for a gigantic disappointment.
ReplyDeleteReagan won in 1980 because Carter was a visible and obvious failure: 8% unemployment, 15% inflation, the Iran debacle, etc.
And because he was a genial, optimistic figure with a record of success as Governor of California.
And because he was the consensus candidate of the Republican Party, winning 60% of the primary vote. Bush was second, with 24%, and became Reagan's running mate.
Incidentally, it was the Republicans, not the Democrats, who were divided in 1980: John Anderson, who got 12% in the primaries, ran as a third-party candidate, drawing 7%.
Cartoonist Scott Adams has described Trump as "a master persuader". I agree this much: he has persuaded a lot of people that John Boehner's golf partner and Mitch McConnell's funder is going to show those "establishment Republicans" what for, and that a good friend of the Clintons is going to smash the liberal establishment.
Obama is a visible and obvious failure: low worjforce participation, 0% interest rates, the Benghazi debacle, etc.
ReplyDeleteWhat % of the primary vote has Trump received?
I don't think Trump is Reagan, but I think he is going to stomp Hilary, and his Supreme Court nominees could not be any worse.
Anderson largely took Democratic votes, but I well remember ta;lking to disspirited Democrats during the 1980 campaign voting for Carter to keep abortion legal.
ReplyDeleteObama is a visible and obvious failure: low workforce participation...
ReplyDeleteNot visible to most people.
0% interest rates...
Of no significance to anyone in the debtor class, which vastly outnumbers the saver/investor class at this time.
the Benghazi debacle...
A one-off incident which has been buried, both literally and figuratively. Iran was a much larger on-going problem.
What % of the primary vote has Trump received?
Even after his recent wins, Trump has only 41.3% of the Republican primary vote. 10,690,472 of 25,881,183.
Clinton has 11,892,480 primary votes. Sanders has 8,718,922.
I don't think Trump is going to stomp Clinton. As soon as Trump has been confirmed as the Republican nominee at the convention, Clinton will be forced out. She'll be told that the FBI has ironclad evidence, and that she will be indicted and convicted for violations of the laws on classified documents ...unless she announces that she has to withdraw from the election for health reasons. (Which would be half plausible; a lot of people think she looks unwell.)
That will leave the Democrat convention about to meet without an agreed nominee. They will have to pick someone. Who? Not Sanders, an old white man. Or Biden, the same only dull. No, it will be someone younger, hipper, female, non-white, with no "baggage", and national stature. A celebrity who can match Trump's name recognition. Michelle Obama. You read it here first.
There are two possible outcomes after that. One is that the friendly MSM waft Michelle to victory while shredding Trump (whose social media channels will be stifled). Bear in mind that Obama's favorable/unfavorable rating is still pretty good, and the glamor aura still envelopes her.
The other is that the American people finally become utterly sick of the Obamas, political correctness, etc., Mexican rioters continue to attack Trump rallies, crime continues to rise, Obama doubles down on his transgender madness, the economy goes majorly south (a distinct possibility, and Trump cruises to a 40-state landslide.