tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2807403883562053852.post5690254134340535260..comments2024-03-27T08:40:31.785-06:00Comments on Clayton Cramer.: It Is Going To Be Close...Clayton Cramerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03258083387204776812noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2807403883562053852.post-67875811395910215392012-10-24T08:03:40.456-06:002012-10-24T08:03:40.456-06:00(I'll continue this for a few days unless you ...(I'll continue this for a few days unless you object): Rasmussen today reports another 50-46% split; with those numbers, if their "likely voter" model is correct enough Obama is probably doomed (of course, this depends on EC results, but those aren't looking good either).ThatWouldBeTellinghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16910231314995266781noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2807403883562053852.post-32508035715607570122012-10-23T09:31:28.838-06:002012-10-23T09:31:28.838-06:00Another data point:
Rasmussen's Daily Preside...Another data point:<br /><br />Rasmussen's <a href="http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll" rel="nofollow">Daily Presidential Tracking Poll</a> today just broke for Romney 50% to 46%.<br /><br /><i>Other than brief convention bounces, this is the first time either candidate has led by more than three points in months.</i><br /><br />Note this is a rolling 3 day poll, with no post-3rd debate results.<br /><br />Some commentators have been noticing that a mild preference cascade like the one we might be seeing tends to demonstrate itself slowly. Me, I'm now assuming Romney's going to win and am more concerned about the Democrats not maintaining control of the Senate, which would be beyond messy.ThatWouldBeTellinghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16910231314995266781noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2807403883562053852.post-41585781007646939212012-10-21T12:08:57.945-06:002012-10-21T12:08:57.945-06:00I'm not as worried:
I haven't followed al...I'm not <i>as</i> worried:<br /><br />I haven't followed all the twists and turns of Gallup apparently changing their polling due to the Administration's threats, but since it all hinges on who actually votes, and therefore polls are only as accurate as their model of likely voters are, we're in something of a "who knows?" situation. At least as far as this election has so many aberrations (maybe not the right word, but I mean things like a mostly failing black socialist President vs. a New England Mormon RINO).<br /><br />And there are limits to how much money can buy in elections, as I'm sure you've observed.ThatWouldBeTellinghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16910231314995266781noreply@blogger.com